Europe: unemployed attack, markets pyatyatsya ago

July 2nd, 2009

On Thursday, July 2, European stock markets closed, the region together in negative territory. At this time, investors disappointed figures on unemployment, both within the region and the trans-Atlantic neighbors.

Unemployment in the euro area rose in May from 9.2% to 9.5%, which was worse than analysts' expectations. The figures for unemployment in the United States rose in June to a record since 1983 and values of 9.5% compared with 9.4% a month earlier.

Today also has a number of other macroeconomic data. Thus, the ECB's key rate was maintained at 1%, and the index of producer prices in the euro area fell in May to 0.2% m /m, while analysts predicted an increase of 0.1%.

As a result of bidding key UK FTSE 100 index declined by 2.57%, French CAC 40 was closed in the red at 3.04%, and the German DAX reduced from 3.02% of its assets. Regional Dow Stoxx 600 index fell 2.78% and closed at a level of 202.48 points.

The market capitalization of the largest in Europe, automakers Volkswagen fell by 7.34% against a background of 18% case the fall in June sales of cars in the U.S. market. Shares second largest producer of automobiles in the world of luxury Daimler cheaper at 5.37% after the sale of units of Mercedes-Benz in the U.S. declined by 26%. In addition to the whole, analysts Credit Suisse Group lowered guidance on the European Market car. Quotations Fiat fell by 0,96%.

Given the erosion of the value of black gold, which traded below $ 68 in a barrel, oil companies have suffered paper sector. Read the rest of this entry »

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In the short term actions AvtoVAZ will be under pressure from retailers

July 2nd, 2009

The Russian market shares of AvtoVAZ has dropped by 4% due to an unfavorable financial statements according to international standards, published today. Short-term debt exceeds the value of the avtogiganta almost a third, and a net loss on the basis of 2008 amounted to 24.7 billion rubles., (In 2007, was recorded profit 3.7 bln.). Need to recognize that the measures relating to the complex crisis events, including investprogrammu and stimulate demand, have not yet yielded the expected results. AvtoVAZ in January-May 2009 reduced the sale of cars by 47% compared to the same period last year - reported by the Company president Boris Aleshin at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Pessimistic forecasts say sales this year doubled the number of cars in less than a year earlier, and a substantial increase in debt. Thus, in the short term, shares are likely to be under pressure from retailers. Nevertheless, given the extent of state support, has already received or pledged AutoVAZ in the future, we can assume that as economic recovery and improvements in the real sector, interest in the shares of domestic avtokontserna on the part of investors will return.

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At 16.00 Moscow time the volume of trades in the market for government securities MICEX was 18.84 billion rubles

July 2nd, 2009

At 16.00 Moscow time the price index value was 115.11 RGBI. Compared with the closing of the previous day, he rose to 0.06 Clause (0.052%). The volume of trades in the market for government securities amounted to 18.84 billion rubles. Yield on bonds SU25063RMFS7 with the date of repayment in November 2011 was 11.83% (-0.01 percentage points) on the bonds SU25064RMFS5 with the date of repayment in January 2012 - 11.87% (-0.04 percentage points) on the bonds SU25065RMFS2 with the date of repayment in March 2013 - 12.1% (-0.01 percentage points) on the bonds SU46014RMFS5 with the date of repayment in August 2018 - 11.75% (0.08 percentage point), SU46018RMFS6 bonds with maturity date in November 2021 - 11.54% (2.38 percentage point).

C corporate bonds reached 985 transactions in the amount of 13235.55 million rubles. Yield on bonds TsentrTel-5 with a maturity date in August 2011 was 14.23% (-0.46 percentage points) on the bonds RZhD-16 region with the date of repayment in June 2017 - 14.64% (-0.13 percentage points ) bonds MTS 04 with maturity date in May 2014 - 15.02% (-0.04 percentage points), on bonds with 01 SLT maturity date of March 2017 - 15.33% (0.33 percentage point), the UralsibLK2 bonds with maturity date of July 2011 - 20.62% (0.28 percentage point).

C sub-federal and municipal bonds reached 198 transactions in the amount of 8045.24 mln. Yield on bonds MGor62-on with the date of repayment in June 2014 was 15.65% (-0.05 percentage points) on the bonds MGor61-on with the date of repayment in June 2013 - 15.61% (-0.06 percentage points) , on bonds MGor50-on with the date of repayment in December 2011 - 14.23% (-0.05 percentage points) on the bonds MGor45-on with the date of repayment in June 2012 - 14.81% (-0.02 percentage points) , on bonds MGor58-on with the date of repayment in June 2011 - 14.08% (-0.12 percentage points).

In Bond Market You can find information on issues of corporate and municipal bonds, as well as learn about the planned deployment, the outcome of trades on the MICEX and read the comments on the bond market.

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Net profit of OGK-1 under IFRS for the 1 st quarter of 2009 rose to 2.03 billion rubles

July 2nd, 2009

Revenue OGK-1 for 1 st quarter 2009 According to IFRS amounted to 11.87 billion rubles, which is 12.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2008, the main cause of decline of this indicator has been making power reduction OGK-1 by almost 16% in connection with the collapse of energy in the regions of plants, the report says the company.

In addition, the decrease in revenues, as well as to change the costs of ongoing activities, in addition to these factors, influenced the effect of the consolidation of the Group share of OGK-1 in the net assets of JSC Nizhnevartovsk GRES. Thus, accounting for 1 quarter 2008 the proportion was 100% and accounts for the 1 st quarter of 2009 - 75% - 1 share (in proportion to OGK-1 in the authorized capital of joint venture with TNK-BP business - NVGRES HOLDING LIMITED , which is implementing an investment project in Nizhnevartovsk GRES.).

The cost of the current activities of OGK-1 for 1 st quarter of 2009 decreased by 21.2% to 10.23 billion rubles. Faster decrease of the cost compared to the rate of reduction of revenue due, mainly, the reduction in variable and fixed costs.

Financial income for the first three months of 2009 amounted to 0.67 billion rubles to 0.05 billion rubles of financial expenditure for the same period in 2008

In connection with an decrease in cost compared to the decrease in revenue earnings from the current activities of OGK-1 for the period increased compared with that of 2008 at 2.6 times to 1.64 billion rubles.

Profit before tax for January - March 2009 increased by 4 times compared to the same period in 2008 and amounted to 2.31 billion rubles. Income tax expense OGK-1 in the 1 quarter of 2009 increased by 35% to 0.28 billion rubles.

Net profit OGK-1 for the first quarter of 2009 increased in 5,4 times and amounted to 2.03 billion rubles. The growth of net profit attributable to the economic effect of implementing a comprehensive program of crisis events, as well as gradual (quarterly), rather than ad hoc, as in previous years, the increase in gas tariff, with a one-indexed (from 1 January 2009) of electricity tariffs and warm. Read the rest of this entry »

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Asia: Sales of automobiles in the United States огорчили major automakers

July 2nd, 2009

Today, July 2, the majority of the major indexes of stock markets of the region fell to a continued decline of automobile sales in the U.S. and the appreciation of Indian gas concern of investors about the future demand of automobiles. Thus, according to Autodata, in June at the U.S. market have been sold in the annual increase of 0.21 million fewer cars and vans than in May. Total sales declined by 28%. In addition, the Minister of Oil and Gas in India said on raising retail fuel prices in sync with appreciation of crude oil on the world market, which will help reduce losses of state oil refining companies.

Despite the statement by the Minister of Finance of India that the rate of economic growth this year could make up 7.75% against the backdrop of the first signs of the bottom of the achievement of the American economy and abundant harvest, caused by monsoon rains, BSE 30 index closed in the red at 0.16% .

On the basis of bidding the regional index MSCI Asia Pacific fell 0.4% to 102.72 points. Japanese Nikkei 225 lost 0.64%, and the leader of the fall was Thailand Bangkok SET, closed at 2.11% below the previous value. In the black closed stock markets of Australia, China, Indonesia, Pakistan, Taiwan and the Philippines.

Shares in the second-largest Japanese automakers Honda Motor cheaper at 2.3% due to the fact that the sale of the company in the U.S. market in June have not been able to surpass 10 million in annual terms, and fell by 30% y /y. The market capitalization of Mazda Motor, exporting most of their products, declined by 2.4%. Papers Indian Maruti Suzuki India, which accounts for half of the domestic car market, retreated to 3.3% on the background of the negative impact of rising fuel prices on sales volume. Read the rest of this entry »

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Oschadbank energy

July 2nd, 2009

Government proposed thermal power utilities regular repayment scheme for natural gas consumed in the past heating season. To do this, Cabinet is ready to issue teplokommunenergo gosgarantii to attract loans Oschadbank to 3.8 billion UAH. This mechanism would exacerbate problems of the industry, fearful kommunalschiki.

Yesterday, the Cabinet issued a decree number 644 of 22 June, which approved the granting of state guarantees utility thermal power (CTV) to attract Oschadbank credit in the amount of UAH 3.8 billion to settle debts for consumed in 2008-2009, the natural gas. Funds received NAK Naftogaz of Ukraine is obliged to send to the injection of natural gas in the UGS. Repay loans to CTV would be over their current accounts in Oschadbank. For those accounts with a special regime should receive payment for a thermal energy to pay for consumed gas.

For gosgaranty CTV should conclude agreements with the Ministry of Finance, under which utility companies pay a gosgaranty; expenditure budget, which may arise if the State of warranty; penalty for each day of delay of payments. In Oschadbank refused to indicate conditions of credit: We only bank serving utility bills, and not a generator of ideas. Details of the conditions gosgaranty probably know at NAK Naftogaz of Ukraine. But in Naftogaz is not able to name the rate, timing and type of collateral for the loan. We have not yet possess the information.

The effectiveness of the scheme will be judged when the CTV to pay us for gas, - said press secretary NJSC Valentin Zemlyanskiy.

This is the second scheme, the Government for repayment of debt for gas in the amount of UAH 3.746 billion, on the basis of the heating season. Read the rest of this entry »

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The ECB will keep rates unchanged, will have to consider other measures

July 2nd, 2009

European Central Bank (ECB) for the meeting on Thursday will keep the base interest rate unchanged at a record low - 1% per year, analysts predict, interviewed agency Bloomberg.

The fact that in June in the euro zone was recorded decline in consumer prices year on year, underlines the challenge faced by European regulators, trying to balance the need to curb deflation and its unwillingness to take additional measures to stimulate the economy out of recession, writes The Wall Street Journal.

According to preliminary data, the Statistical Office of the EU, consumer prices in the region declined in June at 0.1% compared to the same month of 2008. The annual deflation in the region recorded the first time since the beginning of tracking such data in 1996.

The June decline in prices was largely due to falling energy costs compared to the same month the previous year, but the continued weakness of the economy also played a role.

ECB seeks to keep inflation at a level slightly less than 2%. Management previously warned that reducing the cost of oil could lead to the fall in consumer prices. Currently, the bank continues to believe that deflation, which includes long-term decline in prices and wages is unlikely. Nevertheless, some analysts said that the risk of deflation increases.

Statdannye on the European economy is still talking about her weak condition, despite some positive signs. Unemployment in Germany rose in June to 8.3% from 8.2% in May. Government subsidies for employees of German companies have helped to curb the rise in unemployment, but economists warn that the decline in global demand will provoke massive lay-offs, which will lead to an increase in unemployment above 10% by mid-2010.

In Spain, house prices fell in the first quarter of this year at 7.6% year on year, a record decline since 1995. In Ireland, which is also struggling with a crisis in housing has been a decline in GDP in the first quarter to 8.5%. Read the rest of this entry »

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The energy sector over the past two weeks strongly prosel, there is a question of technical correction after the fall of

July 2nd, 2009

On Wednesday, Russia presented a pleasant surprise, which it seems to expect only a few. Although the morning the mood of Russian investors remained positive due to a positive closure on Wall Street (all day SP and Dow-Jones traded to the uncertain trend, but by the evening of indices markedly grown up), but the agony of suspense will not happened - in the morning speculators have made a couple of fairly aggressive attempts force in the market down. But the market has shown an enviable resilience and growth of the leaders went out shares of Gazprom, Novatek and NorNikelya. By the end of the day from the mini-rally is not left behind even the bank shares, which last week had not used a particular demand. Among other things, on the MICEX stock much RusGidro who flew at 14.2% on a huge amount of $ 60mln (6 th place on the turnover on the stock exchange!) On the news about the imminent launch of the ADR I-level in the United States.

While we are not leaving the impression that the mini-rally environment is not justified by fundamental factors, we still can not admit that the rise yesterday was a very high quality - the volume of trades on the MICEX distributed throughout the blue chips, in the proportion who say the seriousness of purchases. Perhaps the market come major institutional investors, and on Tuesday and Wednesday it was buying from them.

The opening of the Russian market on Thursday can be a little lower due to the fact that the American indexes have not been able to maintain a high positive attitude until the end of trading session (losing almost 1% of the maximum of the day). In addition, should not go unnoticed and fairly sharp decline in oil prices due to growth stocks - Brent from $ 72 to $ 68/brr. However, we do not rule out that the quality buying to resume during the day, if the market does not receive new negative news.

We believe that the bulls again will buy shares of oil and steel companies. Moreover, it is not excluded interest in the energy sector companies on the background of the demand for RusGidro. In addition, the energy sector over the past two weeks strongly prosel, and the question of technical correction after the fall of the already overdue.

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Antimonopoly committee charged oblgazy

July 2nd, 2009

Temporary administrative panel of the Antimonopoly Committee fined gas supply company Lvovgaz and Ivano-Frankovskgaz on 30 thousand hryvnia each. The reason - the violation of legislation on protection of economic competition.

business in February reported misconduct by two oblgazov who now confirmed the Antimonopoly Committee. Gas supply company led consumers to conclude contracts for the purchase of gas from suppliers at unregulated rates.

example, Lvovgaz encouraged to work exclusively with the LLC Nika-gas, Ivano-Frankovskgaz - with OOO Company Tandem Plus. With that, according to the regulation of energy Natskomissii in Ukraine are 353 independent supplier gas, and consumers have the right to be served at any of these vendors.

In case of refusal

served at Nick-gas and Tandem Plus, as noted in the message terotdeleniya AMCU in the Lviv region, consumers threatened to disconnect from gas supply. Read the rest of this entry »

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Of Perforation of 91 000 could lead to a drop in futures on the RTS index by 10-15%

July 2nd, 2009

The Russian market is trying to overcome the process of consolidation and exit to the peak values of the beginning of June. However, statistics for the leading economies do not allow to hope for continued growth, the more that the American stock market, for example, has experienced the maximum increase for the quarter.

Today there data on employment in the United States, ahead of the beginning of the reporting period. If food companies report on positive developments, the performance of real production, transport can disappoint. Results of the quarter financial companies might be bearable. On the one hand, increased their capital to the first quarter. Part of the investment portfolios may well increase in price. However, the number of delays is increasing, the value of real estate collateral is decreasing, the amount of credit if and growing, only at the expense of short loans.

Today, on the Russian stock market to open with less. Oil prices fell below $ 69 barrel. Note the reduction of oil reserves in the United States had not made the impression, as well as data to increase the index of business activity in the services sector, China, Europe and the United States.

American Growth indices interrupted views emerged after the information about the amount of construction costs.

However, the market is stabilizing, because markets will, as always, wait for news from the United States.

levels of resistance and support for today July 1

Term contract for the RTS index of execution in September

Trades today promise to be careful, because day is filled with news

expectations.

Information on unemployment in the euro would adversely affect the Russian market.

Solution ECB will not be a surprise, but the commentary on the decision to be delivered after 16:30 it is reflected in the markets, the more so at the same time receive information on the U.S. labor market.

Quotations stuck at a level which could move decisively. The movement of recent days is a continuation of consolidation before the fall. In this case, of Perforation of 91 000 would lead to a drop of 10-15%. However, the opposite is possible and the option - break-up peaks to the beginning of June. To do this, however, will have to close above 101 000.

The level of support for today - 94 100 (90 770).

Level Resistance - 100 000 (104 700).

RTS

- support 960 (930);

- Resistance 1000 (1030).

GAZPROM

- Support 160r.; 153r.;

- resistance 170r.; 175r.

GMKNN

- Support 2770r.; 2650r.;

- resistance 2957r. 3140r.

Company

- Support 1385r.; 1340r.;

- resistance 1430r.; 1460r.

Rostelekom

- Support 150r.; 143r.

- resistance 174r.; 204r.

Rosneft

- Support 165r.; 161r.;

- resistance 175r.; 184r.

bank on.

- support 38.00r.; 36.70r.;

- 40.70r resistance.; 43.70r.

Sberbank Ave

- support 24.70r.; 23.00r.;

- 26.70r resistance.; 28.40r.

Surgutneftegas

- support 21.50r.; 19.65r.

- 22.50r resistance.; 23.60r.

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