Information Unit (part of the investment holding company Finam) held a conference on The American economy: side effects of the dollar floods. The participants noted that, despite the dollar flood the U.S. economy, the sharp devaluation of U.S. currency in the medium term is unlikely. Rather, we should expect a gradual reduction of the share of the dollar in the global economy and reducing its purchasing power.

If you rely on the dry statistics, yet brought out any negative symptoms associated with active infusion of state funds in the U.S. economy, no, says a leading analyst of macroeconomic analysis of JSC Bank Petrokommerts Dmitry Harlampiev: The main side effect, which we encountered, it is probably the increase in speculative markets as a result of active injection, primarily dollar liquidity into the system. The risk was (and, one might say, is) in a correction, the predictions of which sounded the quieter, more actively continued upward anomalous movement of markets. On the correction can be expected now, though, definitely, the second bottom will not ….

The tsunami in the open ocean, away from the coast is usually not a particular danger, says head of information and analysis on world markets Finam Michael Aristakesyan. - It becomes deadly when approaching the shore. At the moment, dollar Tsunami 'to the shore, that is, until the real sector has not yet been reached. But the evidence that it exists and is still in the banking sector are the lowest rates in the interbank market. Thus, recently bet on the dollar were lower than the yen.

According to Mr. Kharlampiev, the main danger of macroeconomic policy stimulus in the U.S. is in total debt and the need to finance growing budget expenditures against the backdrop of a dominant position in servicing the currency of international trade and global savings. Nevertheless, the idea of an aggressive devaluation of the dollar in the medium term is not tenable, given the liquidity of the monetary unit, the flexibility of the U.S. economy, as well as depth of dollar-denominated instruments, I'm sure the judge: It's hard to find an alternative and comparable in terms of investment offers tools for, say , Restructuring the structure of the world's official reserves, which now amount to more than $ 6.5 trillion. .

this opinion is shared by the Head of Strategic Planning and Development UniCredit Bank Vladimir Osakovsky, note that the dominance of the dollar is the result of export-oriented model for the world economy: The United States - the biggest market of all that makes the rest of the world. In mid 20 century, the U.S. took up 40-50% of the world economy, and now 25%. Due to the fact that all one way or another export to the United States, all have dollars and all they want. In the late 20 th century have a different economy, comparable to the size of the U.S. consumer market - Europe. This has led to a second currency (the euro), which can also serve as the dollar and thus reduce the proportion of green in the global monetary circulation. These processes will continue, but only in evolutionary manner, and not a revolutionary.

projected Mr. Aristakesyana, the purchasing power of the dollar in the medium term will be reduced gradually: The sudden collapse no one is interested. The main beneficiary of a significant weakening of the dollar will be gold. Seamless sunset of the dollar is preferable for all.

Department of Public Relations and Media Investment Holding Finam.
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