Investment Company FINAM lowered its target price of shares in OAO RusGidro at the end of 2010 from $ 0,062 to $ 0,057 per common share, while maintaining unchanged the recommendation of buy these securities. According to analysts, the crisis has little impact on the activities of RusGidro, and reducing investprogrammy will allow us to focus on priority projects. Nevertheless, the reduction of the forecast growth rate for electricity in 2010, may continue to adversely affect the financial results of the generator.
According to published in the June data on production and consumption of electricity in May and 5 months of 2009, the most positive situation is in the segment of hydroelectricity. Thus, in the fall of electricity production in Russia in the five months of 2009 to 6.3%, developing gidromoschnostey increased by 10.4% due to the priority load GES - notes analyst IK FINAM Constantine Raleigh. - RusGidro , which owns about half of all gidromoschnostey in Russia, is one of the main beneficiaries of this dynamic. According to the forecasts of the management company, the amount of electricity generated by it, on the basis of 2009 should grow by 2-3% due to changes in water content in the second half.
Among the drivers of growth of quotations RusGidro analysts FINAM provide positive accounts of IFRS on the results of 2008. Profitability on EBITDA (skor.) increased by 7 percentage points and is 50% excluding the new company for the supply segment, - said Mr. Reilly. - According to the forecasts of management companies, on the basis of 2009 EBITDA profitability for the core to the company segment - generation - should not be reduced. In general, the published financial statements RusGidro We evaluated positively because of the faster growth of revenues, compared with growth in transaction costs.
Investment Program RusGidro, the value of which is a major factor in the cost for the company, the decision of the Government of Russia has been reduced by 33% in physical terms and more than 40% in cash. Analysts' FINAM thought that this would RusGidro to focus on priority projects - a high degree of willingness or construction which must be implemented on-demand system operator due to the reliability of the energy system. Moreover, the reduction investprogrammy allow RusGidro increase generated net cash flow.
One of the most significant risks RusGidro Mr. Reilly as a potential regulation of tariffs: Much of the revenue generator from operating activities is formed by the sale of power at the rates approved by the governor. And if the rates for 2009 for RusGidro grew on average by 30% with an average growth rate for the industry at 19%, the growth rate for 2010, with planned sredneotraslevoy value 5% may be much smaller.
An additional factor that can increase the attractiveness of shares RusGidro for foreign investors, analysts' FINAM believe a technical listing of global depository receipts (GDR) generating company in the London Stock Exchange (floor - Main Market) in early July 2009.
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