real sector of economy of Ukraine has passed the most difficult period, but the final overcoming of the crisis will require substantial time and effort, says the head of the group of advisers Heads of National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) Valery Litvitsky.
In the real sector of the economy, the worst is over. The second wave of the crisis will be directed to the financial sector. To counter this trend, and avoid the transfer of its impact on the real sector of the need to implement a number of specific measures. We need to continue to cooperate with the International Monetary Fund, to reduce budget expenditures and continue the recapitalization of banks, - he said the agency Interfax-Ukraine on Wednesday.
In his view, the current conditions of the Ukrainian economy needs stimulating measures: support may be provided by intensive recapitalize banks and the expansion of the refinancing.
At the same time, he said, it is necessary to strengthen resistance to inflation, which at this stage, inspired by regional monopolies and housing and utilities: an increase in prices is not related to the activity of National bank currency.
Achieving those goals is equally important. We need to support the economy, but to ensure price stability, - stressed B. Litvitsky.
analyzing the situation in the economy, the head of the group of advisers NBU chapter noted that the first six months of decline began to decline in industry and construction, while agriculture, there is little growth: these industries form 34% of GDP. However, the dynamics of trade and transport, which depends nearly 31% of GDP during this period continued to deteriorate.
The construction, manufacturing and agriculture emerged from the January peak. We can say that the economy has overcome the highest in the third phase of the crisis, - he said.
Adviser to the Head of NBU reminded that the fall promproizvodstva in Ukraine in January 2009 in relation to the same period last year amounted to 34,1% and in the first half - slowed to 31.1%. At the same time, the volume of completed construction works in Ukraine in January 2009 decreased by 57.6% compared with January 2008, and in January-June 2009 - by 54.9% over the same period in 2008.
In general, in the first half of the industry generate 65% of GDP were about at the level of the first quarter of recession. Improved dynamics (GDP - Ed.) for the half compared with the first quarter could be up to 1 percentage point, ie level of 19-20% (fall - ed.) , - said V. Litvitsky.
According to him, the final GDP may influence depression in foreign trade and the resumption of tenizatsii economy. However, the refinement of estimates of the probable result of the first quarter of the dynamics of the GDP figure may slightly improve.
Adviser to the Head of NBU also opined that in the third quarter economic performance may improve. However, economic recovery is the prospect of the fourth quarter: in this period to clarify the situation on foreign markets and increase the impact on economic performance base of comparison.
Metallurgy in July have begun to raise the head. I think in the third quarter of decline slowed significantly: positive impact on industries and outsiders - Trade and transport, - said V. Litvitsky.
It was reported that the decline in GDP of Ukraine in January-March 2009 amounted to 20.3% over the same period in 2008.
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