Ukraine has sufficient reserves to maintain stability of the situation in case of delay the allocation of the next tranche from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), says a leading economist at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), Alexander Brewer.

If that happens, the macroeconomic risks will increase by a certain period. On the other hand, we do not believe that this is fundamentally affect the situation in the next few months as the National Bank of Ukraine is still quite substantial reserves, and there are levers of the stabilization system - he said the agency Interfax-Ukraine .

We do not believe that this is some kind of tragedy. But it may delay for a longer period of return of confidence in the economy and the stabilization process in Ukraine, - the expert added.

It was reported that the fall of 2008, the IMF decided to allocate to Ukraine stand-by credit of about $ 17 billion In the meantime, Ukraine has already received three tranches amounting to almost $ 11 billion in the fourth installment in the amount of over $ 3 billion is planned for November , but some experts have expressed doubts as to its allocation due to violation of Kiev a series of commitments in the framework of cooperation with the Fund.

Brewer stressed that the cooperation program with the IMF is in Ukraine organizes documents for a period of crisis, because it assumes many health initiatives and reforms that will improve the situation in the Ukrainian economy and the financial sector.

It is more important for Ukraine, the actual implementation of reforms to return to growth and to stabilize the fiscal system, - explained the chief economist at the EBRD.

According to him, full implementation of the program with the IMF will help restore investor confidence in the country.

Speaking about macroeconomic projections EBRD, Brewer noted that a significant deterioration in expectations for the growth of the Ukrainian economy is associated with larger-than-expected fall in GDP in the first quarter of this year.

As reported, the Bank this week announced a deterioration in the forecast fall of Ukraine's GDP in 2009 to 14% from 10% and on the improvement of the economic dynamics of the country in 2010 to 3% 0%.

Lead Economist, EBRD noted that the forecast of GDP growth in 2010 largely due to favorable basis of comparison.

We do not expect a significant recovery, because I do not see the external factors that can greatly stimulate … The demand for Ukrainian exports will not grow very strongly over the next year. Domestic demand will also be stimulated enough: the financial system is unable to increase its funding economy , - said Brewer.

He noted that the influence of government on the expansion of domestic demand will be limited in 2010, having already held a significant increase in public debt.

Monetization of government debt can lead to inflation and a further contraction of bank balance sheets. That is, banks will be even less to finance lending, - he added.

According to him, in 2009 inflation in Ukraine is expected to reach about 16%, and in 2010 - about 10%.

The expert also noted the risk of further devaluation of the hryvnia. The weakening of the hryvnia will lead to a deterioration in the quality of its loan portfolio and to its formal increase, which would require additional capital expansion finuchrezhdeniy: this will create additional difficulties for the banks.

Thus, in his opinion, foreign banks are not actively to increase investments in its Ukrainian daughters and confine them only their support for the current level. Among other things, foreign banks will be guided by the outcome of presidential elections in Ukraine.

Speaking about the prospects of the balance of payments, Brewer noted that he will be under pressure, but lower than that in the current year: a lot will depend on the confidence of foreign and domestic investors, the hryvnia and from the fiscal and monetary policy authorities.

The expert also explained that the prospect of financial accounts will largely depend on the ability of authorities to create conditions for increasing non-resident investments in the Ukrainian economy, while the current account - from energy prices, which buys Ukraine.

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