declared the proposed restructuring of the Eurobond NAK Naftogaz Ukraine for $ 500 million, which included a five-year treatment period, the coupon yield at 9.5% and a sovereign guarantee is unlikely to satisfy the claims of creditors, and therefore it is unlikely that the state holding will restructuring as planned, consider polled by Interfax-Ukraine experts.
Despite the fact that Naftogaz has started negotiations with the holders of debt issued and the conditions of restructuring, the company will not have time to agree on terms for the restructuring until the maturity securities. Thus, if the NAC does not reach agreement with creditors to defer the presentation liabilities, it will be defaulted, - says a senior financial analyst Astrum Investment Management Sergey Fursa.
According to him, to date, Investment Company is not aware that such negotiations with creditors under way, and the baseline scenario Astrum still includes a default Naftogaz of Eurobonds.
downgrade Naftogaz by Fitch is also connected with the forthcoming restructuring, - notes Fursa.
However, according to experts Astrum, terms of restructuring are moderately positive, and coincide with the expectations of the investment company.
This Fursa said that the exchange of sovereign debt, which would be the best option for investors, not provided for: the new eurobonds will have a sovereign guarantee. Despite the provision of guarantees, we are not inclined to identify duty Naftogaz to the sovereign, and we believe that securities companies should trade at a premium on sovereign yield curve, - said Fursa.
He noted: during 2009, the Government has repeatedly stated that the guarantor of the reliability of NAK Naftogaz of Ukraine as a borrower. As a result, investor confidence in all forms of guarantees, including those enshrined in legislation, substantially undermined by the restructuring of Eurobonds.
By calculations of experts Astrum, the sovereign spread curve should be 200-300 b. subsection, and the current value of eurobonds of Naftogaz (88% of the nominal value) overstated, and probably will drop to 80-83% of the nominal value.
In turn, Director of consulting investment company the Concorde the Capital Andrew Gerus also predicts investors' disagreement on the proposal of Naftogaz, and perhaps negotiate with the creditors will continue. According to him, the optimum conditions for them - 11% coupon rate and term restructuring - three or four years.
says the analyst of investment company Socrates Michael Salnikov, the proposed state holdings conditions worse than expected. We expected a partial repayment immediately and gradual repayment within five years. The proposed coupon is too low for such problematic paper - said the expert.
According to the investment group TASK, on Thursday the price of Eurobonds NAC increased slightly, lowering the minimum yield instrument: news so far had no impact on the mood of the stock market of Ukraine.
Shares Ukrnafta, which are most sensitive to news about the background of NAC, throughout the day Thursday, recovering after a morning crash, which confirms the players to ignore this information, - said the head of analytical department of the IG TASK Andrew Shevchishin.
However, he noted that a technical default on its obligations Naftogaz Ukraine will hit the international rating of the country.
As reported with reference to the appeal to investors, Naftogaz Ukraine on Thursday, September 24, offered to creditors to exchange eurobonds on $ 500 million bonds due 30 September 2009 at the new paper with a government guarantee and maturing in 2014.
State Holding proposes to increase the coupon rate from the current 8.125% to 9.5% per annum for new Eurobond.
Naftogaz Ukraine assured of the intention to fulfill their core obligations in full and offers to exchange existing paper on the new par with the proviso that Eurobond holders who have agreed to restructure by October 8 will be able to exchange 100% of the debt, and the second phase restructuring (15 October), the exchange will be carried out with a coefficient of 0,95.
Meeting Eurobond holders NAK Naftogaz Ukraine will be held October 19, 2009 in London at 17.00 CET (16.00 hours London time).
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