International Monetary Fund (IMF) may terminate the cooperation with Ukraine if the authorities of the country without sufficient reason will be used to sverhmernoe increasing budget deficit and undermining the economic situation in the country, according to IMF Resident Representative in Ukraine Max Alier.
If such deviations (the budget deficit - Ed.) will be the result of deliberate policy, which is contrary to the spirit and objectives of the program, we will stop cooperation … We have no intention to take part in politics, which will lead to a deepening economic crisis, - he said in interview with the weekly Contracts.
M. Alier added that such a decision could be taken if the authorities will spur inflationand undermine the stability of the banking system.
IMF Resident Representative also noted that any monetization of the state budget deficit should be carried out with extreme caution. The consequences could be unpredictable and negative, in particular, the jump of the exchange rate and uncontrolled inflation, - explained the financier.
However, in his assessment, despite the National Bank of Ukraine redemption of government bonds until the country's central bank effectively restrain inflation.
M. Alier recalled that in autumn a group of IMF experts will arrive in Kyiv to discuss the draft state budget for 2010, and the Fund mission will visit Ukraine in late October to discuss cooperation programs: for the fourth tranche of funds needed progress in restructuring the banking sector and fiscal policy.
We expect approval assistance strategy for medium and small banks, - he said.
However, he said, the key issue is the draft state budget-2010. The project should be based on realistic macroeconomic projections, and its deficit should not exceed 3% of GDP, not including Naftogaz Ukraine, and 4% taking into account the NAC , - explained the representative of the IMF.
He recalled that the IMF considers acceptable budget deficit in 2009 at 6% of GDP (8.6% in the light of Naftogaz Ukraine ).
At a time when declining budget revenues, it is necessary for several years severely control budgetary expenditures, reduce them to keep the budget deficit, - he said the IMF's view on the situation.
representative of the fund also said that the IMF expects to increase gas prices to the public in September by 20% in 2010 on a quarterly basis by 20% - a move intended to reduce the amount of state support Naftogaz Ukraine. In addition, he said, in 2010, is expected to increase tax collection.
Speaking on the recapitalization of banks, M. Alier said that the main impact of the Fund for the relevant program, rather than the speed of its introduction. He emphasized that most large banks have the bulk of the required size dokapitalizatsii from its shareholders, and the rest may come before the end of the year.
were five big banks, the owners were not willing to increase the capital of their financial establishments. Three of them have already been recapitalized by the State, - he said.
However, he said, the government pledged to make a capital in the bank Nadra Ukrprombank and after successful completion of negotiations on the restructuring of external debts of these financial establishments.
We expect that in the near future the situation in the financial sector back to normal. Actions aimed at restoring confidence, already beginning to bear fruit, - emphasized M. Alier.
According to him, Ukraine has already received from the IMF $ 10.5 billion under the program of stand-by: allocates an additional $ 6 billion, of which $ 3.8 billion is planned to provide the country before the end of the year.
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