return of large foreign investments in Ukraine”s banking sector depends on economic policy, which will hold elections after the country”s leadership. In a positive scenario, changes will be felt in the coming year.
however possible and the negative scenario in which a default can not be ruled Ukraine for internal and external obligations, which call into question the credibility of the country”s economy as a whole. This opinion was expressed by the head of Treasury Bank “Kiev” Felix Indenbaum.
According to him, with positive developments in a year the volume of currency - due to the inflow of foreign investment - the market will rise considerably. “A surplus, supply exceeds demand, leading to a revaluation of the hryvnia” - says the analyst.
influx of foreign investment will allow banks to revive lending. As a result, the financial institution will be able to pay off foreign debts, which were previously restructured.
On the other hand, the pessimistic scenario assumes no change in the economy and the prospect of a default by Ukraine”s internal and external obligations - with the subsequent restructuring. “Foreign money will not appear again, the economy will not grow. And then it will go not so much about the repayment of loans of individual banks, but rather the confidence of investors in our country as a whole”, - adds Indenbaum.
actual developments in the economy in general and in the banking market in particular, depends on the proper use of budgetary funds. “Eat into the budget, an increase of social payments in the complete absence of investment in production and the real sector to generate profits, will aggravate the situation”, - stressed Indenbaum, adding that a key role in implementing economic policy in the country will not even play the new President and the Prime Minister.
As head of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), bankers expect from it a sound decision, although the figure head of the NBU is more political.
“Of course, the candidacy of head NBU offers the President, approved by parliament. But if he is a good professional, a man of common sense, and not a puppet, he will be able to fulfill its task”, - the expert added.
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