National Bank said that last year”s financial account deficit reached a record $ 12 billion, and in December due to the influx of new loans first financial account was positive. Experts believe that in 2010, thanks to improvements in foreign markets and investment inflows foreign exchange deficit in the country reduced to $ 7 billion
NBU yesterday published a report on the balance of payments for 2009, the deficit which declined to $ 1.94 billion from a record $ 12.76 billion in 2008. This NBU late last year recorded the worsening trade deficit. The balance of exports and imports of goods and services was the worst, and in December ($ 767 million), and in the IV quarter ($ 1.067 trillion). As a result, the outflow of currency from the country”s trading operations amounted to $ 2.72 billion from the banks seized currency for another $ 9.61 billion
But if in the past years, the excess of imports over exports offset by the influx of investments and loans in the country, the past year showed the opposite trend. Negative result on financial transactions has reached its maximum value - $ 11.79 billion - because of the outflow of funds resulting from the payment of loans and bonds worth $ 9.04 billion
situation improved only in the last month of last year: there was a trend refracted excess refund amount of loans to attract new, which began in November 2008. Financial account in December for the first year was positive, reaching $ 363 million This is due to a positive credit balance of $ 676 million improvement of the situation has hampered the reduction of direct investment up to $ 120 million, while in November the country has received from non-residents $ 358 million, and in October - $ 728 million banks have increased the foreign debt of $ 164 million, while the company - at $ 458 million
Experts explain that the termination of capital outflows in December due to the restructuring of loans to a number of banks and enterprises. “Attracting and could become regular trade credit - analysts said Renaissance Capital Ukraine, Anastasiya Golovach .- In foreign markets recovery occurred, and Ukrainian companies have access to short loan, with a serious investment we are not talking.” Analysts expect a continuing trend throughout 2010, despite the planned repayment of loans by banks with foreign capital. “In the first place should happen to improve the balance of the banking system, which will draw more loans, rather than extinguish them,” - said economist IR Astrum Investment Management Alexei Blinov.
Analysts believe that with this revival of the financial account deficit to fall to $ 7 billion “By improving the foreign trade exports will grow faster. And despite the growth in imports, primarily due to higher costs and increased buying gas, paying for which will increase from $ 6 billion last year to $ 10 billion, we believe that the current account becomes positive and will make $ 2 billion, “- said Anastasiya Golovach. Alexei Blinov added that taking into account the proceeds from the IMF decline in net reserves NBU will be $ 1 billion
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