Executive Director of the Center CASE-Ukraine Dmitry Boyarchuk believes that the market today can be considered a course of 8 UAH /USD.
And our calculations, and calculations of other organizations have shown that with the current state of the trade balance and the state of the economy in the region of 8 UAH /USD. - it is more or less the market, the balance sheet rate, - he said.
At the same time, commenting on the statement of the head government of Yulia Tymoshenko, that the right policies hryvnia bank can be strengthened to the level of 6-6,5 UAH /USD., D. Boyarchuk said: As far as I know, these 6-6,5 UAH /USD., this idea of course, the Yulia Vladimirovna had a whole year, but I think it is impossible to be done.
In general, the expert considers that today the National Bank of Ukraine holds enough грамотную policy, noting that only one action to keep the NBU rate usually is not enough.
In principle, the National Bank operates quite competently. But the problem is that some actions of NBU in order to maintain the course. usually not enough. The main issue relates to fiscal policy, - said the expert.
According to D. Boyarchuk now big problems with filling the state budget, which in turn can cause pressure on the National Bank of the Government of emission in order to cover the shortfall of cash resources. But he noted that the likelihood of such actions NBU small.
There is a risk that at some point - you can call it a step beyond the government - all the same as the push through the National Bank of the possibility of uncontrolled print hryvnia. In principle, such a risk exists, because the budget is a serious problem with income. While this risk is low, around 10% chance of this - said Dmitry Boyarchuk.
In his opinion, likely if the current situation, it will issue hryvna small amounts, mostly for the payment of the obligations of Ukraine, but this issue will not have a significant impact on the course.
If everything will happen as is happening at the moment, the budget will just build up debt, will be gradually published hryvnya to repay external debts and to ensure that Naftogaz of Ukraine was calculated on their debts. But I do not I think that this will have a major impact on the course - said Dmitry Boyarchuk.
He stressed that today the main factors determining the exchange rate is the trade balance, the volume of investments into the country, as well as panic and as a result of speculative transactions.
This AD Boyarchuk noted improvement in the trade balance, and with regard to investment, he said, if you will be outflow of resources, it would not be so significant. to cause to fall course hryvna.
Short-term speculative capital, he already has in the past year. Those who wish to withdraw from the hryvnia, they have already closed their positions. Those who still want to go, it does not depend on them, but from their debtors. They will go in part, but it will not be so large outflow to cause to fall hryvnia - stressed the expert.
from panic, according to D. Boyarchuk, will not детьÑÑ. As for the speculators, then with the National Bank now actively working.
Regarding the panic, there is nothing about it, and likely will be some amateur, artisanal ways to earn fluctuations. I think some banks will try to earn a course, and he probably will be some bob, with a maximum in the hryvnia, and it then returns to the point in 8 UAH /USD. or a little more, - said the expert.
According to D. Boyarchuk in September and October will understand how bad the state of the economy and what is still the real exchange rate hryvnia. However, if this period will pass without any major upheaval, then you can expect some stabilization, tentatively, until the holiday season.
September, October will show if there is no a clearly defined negative, I think, will continue to pospokoyney, because the September-October is the beginning of the business season, and he shows the state of the economy. If in the course of these two months, nothing terrible will happen, in principle, until the next holiday season should not be anything catastrophic to happen, is that before most elections, the political climate and again incandesce hard to imagine how it would respond to the economy , - said the expert.
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