International rating agency Standard Poor s (SP) on 30 June confirmed the sovereign credit ratings of Belarus: a long-term and short-term ratings for obligations in foreign currency at 'B' and 'B', respectively, long and short-term rating on obligations in national currency - at the level of BB and B. Outlooks on both ratings remains negative.
Agency experts have noted that external liquidity Belarus continued to deteriorate, despite the conclusion of the contingency loan (the stand-by) the International Monetary Fund (IMF). In addition, a considerable pressure on international reserves of the country, undermines the sustainability of measures to maintain stability of the currency.
level rating of Belarus is limited by structural problems caused by the inflexible economic policies, including dependence on key trading partners - the CIS countries, the worsening external liquidity and limited access to international capital markets. The agreement on the contingency loan (the stand-by) from the IMF in January 2009 helped to avoid the growing pressure on international reserves , - said the credit analyst of Standard Poor s Kai Shtukenbrok.
positive impact on the ratings provide a moderate level of external debt.
The communication agency also noted that the sharp deterioration in trading conditions and reduced demand from key importers led to a deterioration in trade performance Belarus. As a result, over 12 months of the current account deficit rose to 13% of GDP (as at March 2009) compared with 8% (as at end 2008). Credit IMF stand-by program in the amount of $ 3.5 billion, supplemented by on-lending from other sources, softened the situation of the deteriorating conditions of access to international capital markets.
Despite the anticipated funding of $ 1.9 billion from non-profit sources and the proceeds from privatization in the first five months of 2009, as well as 20%-ing the devaluation of the Belarusian ruble against the U.S. dollar in January 2009, international reserves have not changed from the end of 2008, remaining at low levels - $ 2.6 billion that provides coverage reserve payments current account in only one month, say experts. Increased confidence in the policy may contribute to the recent statement by the IMF that it increased the amount of credit for $ 1 billion, believe they are.
At the same time, the worsening international economic environment could have a significant negative impact on export-oriented economy of Belarus.
We expect the economic downturn in this country is 5% this year after a significant growth of 10% in 2008. Low net debt of the enlarged government (the Government and local authorities - IF) is expected to grow to 15% of GDP from 9% in 2008 due to a significant weakening of the national currency , - said in a message S P.
forecast negative reflects the low level of external liquidity, and growing, according to agency experts, the problems associated with the centralized model of the Belarusian economy.
The increase of IMF credit reflects these risks, because failure to reach agreement with Russia regarding payment tranche amounting to $ 500 million (remaining amount of the promised adjustment credit) only underscores the growing problems that Belarus is in the continuation of external funding. Therefore, in our point of view, a potentially painful measures to adjust economic policies is inevitable to reducethe current account deficit and maintain access to external financing in the medium term , - says the message.
Improving international reserves, and at the same time, measures to strengthen external competitiveness and reduce import and the energy dependence of the Belarusian economy could be the conditions for stabilization at the current rating level. And, conversely, failure to reduce the large deficit on current account further deterioration of external liquidity, and reserves that would potentially undermine the exchange rate may lead to lower ratings, - stressed Shtukenbrok.
RAO ES the East will take part in the unification of Magadan and Yakutsk Electricity
Savings Bank from July 1, change the conditions of the opening of accounts for deposits
Today in the morning Asian indexes and futures on the U.S. indices again traded in the black
New World Index closed at a decline 0,5-1%
Expert: The current growth in the U.S. is only seasonal
Russia gave a further six months
Statistics of the first quarter: 0.4 plus or minus 23?
The main Russian indices move differently, the majority of «blue chips» traded in the positive area
The objectives of futures on the RTS index, with its growth - 101 of 000 items