projections the United States dollar is the most controversial in the past two years, and this only reinforces the value of currency changes and increases the risk of failure of the monetary strategy, reported Bloomberg.

Analytical Redtower Asset Management firm predicts the strengthening of the dollar by the end of 2009 to $ 1.16 per euro from $ 1.3906 to the current background of global economic recovery following the recession. At the same time, Standard Chartered Plc, experts expect that the stabilization of the economy would weaken the dollar to $ 1.55 per euro as the Federal Reserve System (FRS) the USA will not raise interest rates, and investors will sell dollars and invest in more profitable assets.

Thus, the spread between the upper and lower boundaries of the forecast is now 39 cents, and nearly twice the value before the crisis - 20 cents in August 2007.

uncertainty of forecasts leads to increased volatility and increased risk for the so-called transactions carry trade. In such transactions are in debt funds in countries with low interest rates and bought the assets with higher returns, and thus spread the investors profit. In doing so, they run the risk that fluctuations in world currency markets would deprive them of that profit.

Usually in such circumstances, volatility is gaining momentum and continues until there is not a decisive shift in one direction or another - argues a senior vice president of Putnam Investments Paresh Upadhya. - The dollar is now at a critical period, and for me it is a sign that the oscillation in one direction or another will be very significant.

Volatility in exchange rates had a negative impact on profit forecasts and companies-exporters. For example, the American HJHeinz Co., A leading global manufacturer of ketchup, explained the decline in profit in February-April 2009, the unpredictability and sharp currency fluctuations.

The current volatility is more than twice the norm - said last week, Barclays Plc President Robert Diamond. - Volatility could have a devastating impact on corporate profits.

In such a situation, the company asked for advice from an analytical and research firms, but even the professionals are not able to make a reliable forecast.

The best and most expensive professionals of the world simply do not understand what is happening. How one can expect that the Treasury razberutsya companies - said one of the directors of British EasyJet PlcToby Nicholas.

rates G7 volatility index rose in May to a maximum in October 2008, when he reached the highest value for 16 years. In recent weeks, G7 Volatility index rose by 1.2 points - to 14.4% on June 19. The average value of the indicator in the 10 years prior to the financial crisis of 2008 was 9,9%.