During the previous week (from 14 to 18 September) Ukrainian stock exchange indices (UB) and the PFTS was added to 4% each
Thus, the volume of retail sales in the U.S. for August have grown on 2,7%, which was a record figure for the last 3 years, industrial production for the previous month, which added 0.8%. In addition, September 15, Fed chief Ben Bernanke hinted at a cautious end of a recession. From a technical point of view, a recession is likely over, but the economy will be very weak for some time, - he said.
During the previous week (from 14 to 18 September) Ukrainian stock exchange indices (UB) and the PFTS was added to 4% each. Traders noted that liquidity returns to the market. At UB trading volume for the previous week increased by 15,3 million UAH. compared with the previous and reached 85,7 million UAH. Traders on the PFTS also livened up by increasing the volume of 33,9 to 57,1 million UAH.
Among blue chips showed the highest growth rate of paper Azovstal (12,5%) and Motor Sich (10,7%). Investors are increasingly buying Azovstal after strong operating results plant in early September. But the demand for Motor Sich is retained with the issuance of a series of positive news in the summer, - says a senior analyst at investment company Phoenix Capital Andrew gestation.
However, shares of banks, which have shown growth throughout the spring-summer rally, lost in the price. Thus, Raiffeisen Bank Aval for the past week fell by 2,5%, and added symbolic Ukrsotcbank 0,3%. The banking sector is still at a disadvantage. Banks continues to build up loss reserves and charge. While other industries have already shown signs of recovery. Therefore, the paper finuchrezhdeniy now of little interest to investors, - explains the trader investment company Renaissance Capital, Michael Zavadovsky.
Among Experts disagree on how to behave indexes the current week. On the one hand, traders have the opportunity to take profits after two weeks of growth (from 7 to 18 September UB index rose by almost 7%, the PFTS index - by 6,9%). This week on stock markets, we expect a correction. The closure of long positions at current levels and the opening short, is likely to increase reduction, - says CEO of AMC Concord Asset Management Gregory Pelekh.
On the other hand, the domestic stock market depends entirely on the global trends. And given that the world's site full of positive news, the Ukrainian and indexes will reach upward. The mood in global platforms remains positive, the bad news does not come out. This means that growth is possible and we have - suggests Michael Zavadovsky.
For shares Stirol recommendation - buy . According to our estimates, the target (fair) stock price - $ 7.2 per share, which provides 61% upside potential from current price ($ 4.47).
The demand for fertilizers in the world market due to the economic crisis in 2008 and a significant rise in the cost of gas for Ukrainian fertilizer producers serious blow to the industry. Stirol company has reduced production of fertilizers during the first seven months of 2009 by 52% compared to the same period last year.
Nevertheless, we believe that with the restoration of the global economy the demand for grain and food will grow, which in turn will stimulate demand for fertilizers, including nitrogen, which specializes concern Styrene.
Despite the higher cost of gas in 2009, Stirol managed to maintain its competitive edge by specializing in production of more expensive granular urea, are in demand in foreign markets, and diversifying the product range.
additional drivers of growth stocks Stirol may make the privatization of major fertilizer producers in Ukraine (Odessa port plant), and Poland.
Shareholders Aval until the end of 2009 are going to pour into the capital of the bank 531 million UAH., resulting in a capital adequacy ratio will increase from 12,9% in 2008 to 14,8% in 2009. Given the quality of bank assets, this level more than sufficient to cover possible losses.
The capital increase will enhance the image and leading position of Raiffeisen Bank Aval, especially against the background of the problems of many other financial establishments. This should help the bank to restore profitability in 2010 and increase annual net income by an average of 46% in 2010-2013. We believe that given the new number of shares of securities of Raiffeisen Bank Aval has 53%-tion potential growth rates in U.S. dollars.
At the moment there is the prospect of correction and bank shares may fall in price, but the Ukrainian market is very volatility and might miss the moment of entry at lower prices.
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