USD

Fedrezerv acting clearly on Rules: states that the American economy must first begin to rebuild and pull the rest of the world is, then, and projections for growth to be relevant. State struggles trying to fit the indicators under the stabilization scenarios: the labor market has gone to the amendment, now it is up to the American consumer. Here you will see very soon the data on retail sales and personal spending will begin to emit optimism. Nevertheless, not to say that the dollar gained a lot from this. First, the currency strengthened, but traders are always entangled in their attitudes and orientations, so immediately after the positive reaction to optimistic forecasts, they have once again demonstrated the attraction to risk, thereby undermining the position of bucks.

So, the Fed announced its intention to slow purchases of American gosobligatsy in the program of $ 300 billion, because the recession is on the decline. This amount will be fully spent by the end of October. The very tone of the accompanying statement is more optimistic, but that Bernanke does not hurry to make changes in monetary policy. Guidethe Fed left the basic discount rate in the range of 0-0,25% and stated that given the economic conditions of the rate will remain at very low level during the long time. This decision was taken unanimously. Nevertheless, the statement still remains cautious, as it was noted that consumer spending is limited continuous decline in the labor force, low income growth and tight credit conditions.

After the main intrigue week, we continue to move forward, and now on the agenda we have the volume of retail sales. Of course, hardly be expected that rates will fly in July, particularly given reports of Redbook that sales declined by 5%! However it is necessary to be prepared for the positives: the last time the U.S. economy surprisingly, by the way, provides the necessary positive signals. Strengthening the above projections may trigger the initial demand for the dollar, but feared the risk of traction control - trade on such sentiment is still adversely affect the bucks.

EUR

euro were able to return to the stage after 4 days of calm. In the case again came the demand for risky positions, even though not very rosy economic background. As expected, the CPI in July, France has shown a sharp fall against the backdrop of the declining prices of food and energy, and basic effects of inflation have helped to update the annualized historical minimums. HICP index fell by 0.5% m /m and the annualized rate was at 0.8% weaker. The volume of industrial production in 16 countries in the eurozone fell in June after growth demonstrated in May, which confirms that the recovery from recession will be slow and painful. According to Eurostat, the volume promproizvodstva decreased by 0.6% m /m and 17.0% y /y. The unexpected monthly decline shows that the recovery of the euro after a deep recession will not be easy.

Today, the focus will remain on the GDP for the second quarter. Given the drop in consumer spending and a reduction in surplus of trade balance, everything points to weakening growth in the period from April to June. If the figure would be worse than forecasts, the euro is likely to revert to long-supported $ 1.4100. Although I doubt that he will be able to penetrate below.

GBP

Pound once reluctantly went on the consolidation, and the reasons for this is quite substantial. According to data published by national statistical agency of the United Kingdom, in the second quarter unemployment rate reached a maximum level for 13 years. Unemployment rate (in accordance with the standards of the International Labor Organization) has increased by 220 thousand, bringing the unemployment rate was 7.8% versus 7.1% in quarter 1. This figure was a maximum of 4 quarter of 1996. Also, the figures show that the level of employment fell by 271 thousand, reflecting a sharp decline since the start of observation in 1971.

In the meantime, the Bank of England warned in its inflation report that the recession in Britain has been stronger than previously anticipated, but recovery from it are likely to be slow and protracted. Although Mervyn King, Governor of the Bank, acknowledged that recent studies reflect some signs of recovery, but he added that the country is a long time will remain in a difficult situation. But the main reason for the quantitative expansion of the program to mitigate, it turns out, was the expectation that inflation would remain below 2% case the target level of the bank in the coming years. In general, were unable to positive indicators from the services and manufacturing industries confused by the Committee on monetary policy. MPC prefers a policy of prevention, which means that rates may begin to rise it is not soon.

JPY

The dollar and the yen can not decide who is the least risky currency, so the couple does not make a particularly dramatic movement during the entire morning session. Dealers noted that the Japanese account bought dollar /yen in the early tenders in Asia - according to the news, this activity was related to the repatriation of profits. Restoration of Chinese stock indices in the early bidding slightly increased interest in risk, although the main index of all, concluded the morning trading in the red.

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