USD

corporate reporting season in full swing and it seems that they now set the tone market. Wednesday was a sign of interest in vysokoriskovannym assets. Yen and dollar held losses against major opponents in a stock-market boom, which has received support from speculation that the next data on U.S. corporate profits may exceed expectations. Today we will be able to find confirmation or refutation of this assumption, as seen reports of Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM), JP Morgan (JPM) and Nokia (NOK). Strong figures it is able to facilitate the resumption of interest to risk and cause a new wave of demand for vysokodohodniki.

But reports profit yesterday were not the only ones that have caused concern. It was published a number of fundamental data, and is worth noting that after-market sentiment has not changed. FOMC Minutes showed the expected increase of forecasts for economic indicators that contributed to optimism about the early exit from the crisis. However, it proved too little explanation on the timing of the completion of quantitative mitigation policy, which was announced on June 25. The positive tone of the protocol does not contradict obscherynochnym sentiment. The consumer price index showed an increase above the projections (0.7% - highest since July last year). Of course, the main influence here have had rising prices of gasoline and energy. But it may be noted that the rebates, which provide retailers with a view to stimulating consumer activity and a weakening of growth in prices for gasoline at the present time can lead to inflationary pressures gradually decrease and the Fed not raising rates will have to undertake before the economic recovery begins. On the prospects of monetary policy the U.S. can read more in article review of the market, interest rates in the United States could be increased until July next year. It was also reported a sharp improvement in the index of business activity FRB of New York (-0.55 to -9.41 in advance. Period). Reducing the volume of production was minimal in 8 months, the pace (-0.4% vs. -1.2%), which indicates that the worst of the crisis in the past and was on the verge of recovery can begin. And even if one considers that the company got rid of stocks, you can wait for recovery. Although, of course, the fall in employment can have a downward pressure.

Today, we get the new weekly data on the labor market (recall that under the circumstances, interest is not only primary but also to re-apply for unemployment benefits). In addition, the continued publication of reports on regional economic activity - now that would be the data from the FRB Philadelphia. And do not forget about the confidence of foreign investors in the economy in the form of a report on capital inflows TIC. The data give a hint at the imminent restoration of the U.S. economy could trigger an increase appetites for risk, although the most likely to be a reaction to reports on corporate profits, which would set the tone for trading.

EUR

On the reasons for the strengthening of European currencies has already been said. Report on the Consumer Price Index of influence on the dynamics are not provided, but confirmed that they have fallen for the first time since 1996, under the influence of falling energy prices and limited spending by households. Inflation in the euro zone fell by 0.1% against last year. This revised data, which completely coincided with the initial value, published on 30 June. And, most likely in the near future inflation will not be a big problem for the region, because in a crisis reduces consumption and sellers are forced to reduce prices. Published today on the French inflation data confirmed the likelihood that the price pressure is reduced and the risk of deflation remains. However, the impact on exchange rate dynamics are not provided.

In addition to already published, reports are scheduled and therefore most likely that the currency will move under the influence of technical factors and news of the U.S. corporate sector. Of course, provided that no surprises prepodnesut officials.

GBP

pound rose to a two-week peak against the dollar, not only by the interest in risk, but against the backdrop of a positive report onthe labor market, which allowed to say that the worst phase of the crisis may be behind us. Increase the number of unemployed has been minimal since May 2008 and amounted to 23.8 thousand, which is below the average forecast of 45 thousand in the downgrading was revised figure for May (30.8 thousand m /m from before. 39,3 thousand). But even with such minimal growth rate of registered unemployed in June managed to reach the 12-year maximum of 1.56 million. The uncertainty of employment prospects keeps downward pressure on wage levels. Therefore, excessive optimism did not feel worth it.

Today's calendar, as well as European, is empty and, consequently, the dynamics of the British will be under the influence of external reporting and technical factors.

JPY

Jena this morning was able to regain lost ground against the dollar under the influence of a small decline of interest in risk. But, as already noted, there is every chance that the dynamics of change throughout the day. Treasury data are not conducive to optimism. The index of activity in the tertiary sector of the Japanese economy, which describes the cost of the service sector declined in May to 0.1% in monthly terms, after growth at 2.2% in April. Yes, the fall peak values were lower, but still cause for optimism there. Although the Bank of Japan raised the assessment of the economic situation in the country the third consecutive month, citing an increase gosrashodov and recovery of industrial production and exports. As reported in today's report, economic conditions are likely to improve in the near future.

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