Andrej Kryuchenkov, an analyst at VTB Capital

another unremarkable day in the gold market. Prices for the precious metal continues to consolidate after the recent rally. In the near future the market is likely to continue to move in within the corridor of $ 1,040-1,070 per ounce, but a more significant weakening of U.S. currency can make the quotation once again to test the upper limit of this range. Meanwhile, volatility in the market falls, and we do not expect any significant movements or substantially increasing the players before the end of this month, when they published a new macroeconomic statistics that are relevant for the gold market, which should also lead to increased volatility in the currency market. Despite the decline in premiums, sale of call option with a negative intrinsic value (out of the money) is still not devoid of meaning. Direction of the market continues to set the external factors, and the main traffic generating speculators seeking to hedge their dollar risks. At current price levels to expect special rehabilitation physical demand is not necessary, including from India, where he will also remain low after the Feast of Diwali (Hindu Festival of Lights). However, while the dollar remains volatile, reducing the probability of quotations of gold is limited. Despite record levels of speculative demand for gold futures and options and unprecedented amounts of reserves of gold stock funds, further weakening the U.S. currency may attract more inflows of speculative money into the market. Yesterday, more successful U.S. show failed, but the index of U.S. currency resist higher levels of support in 75.3. Silver continued to trade within a narrow range, still flying above the mark at $ 17 per ounce. At the end of this week you should pay attention to the statistics of sales of homes in the United States. In general, in our opinion, it would be best to close positions, maximize profits, while allows the volatility.

Quotes oil futures on Wednesday virtually unchanged: as in London and New York prices while staying on to peak. The price WTI continues to demonstrate advanced dynamics in relation to Brent: the spread between the quotations of the December futures yesterday reached $ 2.2. At the same time, the entire length of the curve there is narrowing of the calendar spreads, and contango seems even less attractive than a week ago, especially on NYMEX. In this regard, we believe that those who have the opportunity to take profits now, it makes no sense to hold on long positions. It is interesting to note that the volatility in the near-end of the curve in recent years quite considerably weakened.

In general, the price of oil is still determined by changes in the dollar, in the case of the collapse of which (ie sustainable breakdown index of the dollar mark 75.3), both major grades of oil can easily test the value of $ 80/bar. Otherwise, we expect some retracement in the price of Brent result of profit-taking before the markers $ 72 and may continue up to $ 70/69. With respect to WTI, but today the deadline for the November contract, and therefore can not be ruled increased pressure on prices on the background of the transfer positions. In the case of breakdown of the $ 75 level a key level of support for the WTI price is at $ 72. From a fundamental point of view of the potential for further price growth remains limited: Stocks of distillates is still too high, and that prices could move up to the appearance of visible signs of a seasonal increase in demand and reduction of stocks in OECD countries. From a technical point of view, both the market and are ready to turn.

The continued decline of the dollar has provided a friendly growth of quotations of base metals at LME. In addition, most major market operators returned to work after the event last week (so-called week LME). Copper price swept to the upper boundary of the corridor designated by us ($ 6,500 /ton), while aluminum quotes Breaks $ 1,950 /t. The growth of world stock markets and a new weakening of the dollar led to a rise in prices on LME trades under the curtain. Meanwhile, stocks of metals on the stock exchange on Monday, virtually unchanged. In general, the current rally in the market of base metals due to external rather than fundamental factors. The source of optimism for most commodity and stock markets are still higher than expected company profits, and stable positive makrostatistika. At this stage in the stock markets, there is good support, which limits the potential of a drop in prices on LME. It is noteworthy that the index VIX, which is considered a barometer of risk aversion by investors, updated this year lows just above 21 points - the last time such a low level was recorded in III quarter. 2008 Despite the optimistic the September statistics of Chinese imports, a long period of stock reduction has not started yet, so for the further growth of quotations of dollar weakness alone will not suffice. However, the steady breakdown of marks in the $ 6,500 might well provoke further growth of quotations of copper in the case of aluminum is the key resistance at around $ 1,970. In the absence of important makrostatistiki this week, the dynamics of quotations on the LME will continue to depend on thebehavior of the dollar and stock indices.

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