USD

We thought that the baggage positive for the dollar these dried up, but no such luck. Friday”s GDP has exceeded all of the boldest predictions, accounting for 5,7%. Growth of the U.S. economy in the 4 th quarter were the highest in the last 6 years, as factories were forced to activate additional conveyors to prevent the depletion of stocks. In addition, the positive was noted in the report on business conditions in the region of New York. The index soared in January to 64,5 to 72,6, thereby reaching the maximum value from the November 2006 index of consumer confidence also strengthened with 72,8 to 74,4.

However, such a general optimism has caused a lot of suspicion, despite the fact that the dollar has strengthened against major currencies. Most problems caused GDP. First, it is a lagging indicator, and the first data will be revised twice more, and quite possibly significantly. And it does not matter. The main thing is that this sharp increase was due to the strengthening of stocks that, accordingly, does not guarantee the same rate of growth in the future. If you look at the domestic market, there was recorded an increase in sales only by 1,7%. So far, the U.S. currency is celebrating a victory, but given its overbought, may reasonably be expected to recoil in the presence of the catalyst. Perhaps such a catalyst, we get very soon.

This week promises to be interesting. Dollar at a rate to be another big test - data on the labor market. Preceded by a report Friday and, as usual, will be host of leading indicators: ISM manufacturing and services sectors, the number of layoffs Challenger, levels of employment in the private sector from the ADP, the number of applications for benefits b /d. To date, re-employment levels are projected move into positive territory. It will be interesting to see whether the predictions are confirmed. Starting today and start: Pay attention to the employment component of the ISM index in the manufacturing industry. Simultaneously, the interest will be and report on personal spending and income, which is an excellent indicator of the consumer sector. Positive dynamics only strengthen the position of the dollar, although it was unlikely we will see sharp movements up to Friday”s report.

EUR

Euro continued its fall, and this time reached the lowest level since July last year. And it isnot in economic terms, but rather in the financial condition of some countries of the euro zone. The situation in Greece continues to do his job and slowly eroding investor confidence in the stability of E-16. Rather, the debate on this topic will continue in the near future and will put pressure on the euro.

Meanwhile, economic reports were quite positive. Money supply M3 E-16 although decreased by 0,2% year on year against -0.1% in November, but exceeded analysts” expectations for the decline of 0,6%. Rate b /d in the euro zone rose to 11-year-old with a slight peak in December, but still remained below projections. And, finally, the annual rate of eurozone inflation in January rose to a mark 1% versus 0.9% in December. This is still below the target mark of the ECB, however, is the highest level since February last year.

This week we will see a lot of interesting things: data on retail sales, industrial orders and industrial production in Germany, and the event will be a meeting of the ECB rate. Naturally, the focus will attract the press conference, Trichet, who can tell about their plans on programs to stimulate the economy, as well as comment on the economic prospects of the region. Today we get the final data on business activity in the euro zone manufacturing sector. Continued growth index PMI can support the euro, but unlikely to cause a sharp increase in foreign currency.

GBP

Friday pound still could not keep within the range observed all week in a pair with the dollar and struck the lower boundary. The precedent created - 1.60 mark breached that only support the further weakening of the British. The weakening currency has been due more to the demand for the dollar than the economic reports from the UK, which has never been as optimistic. Consumer confidence in Britain rose by 2 points in January to -17 from -19 in December, after declining in the previous 2 months, as shown by the index of consumer confidence GfK /NOP. A separate report showed that house prices rose in January to 5-month high. The dynamics of real estate prices only confirmed the validity of the growth index of consumer confidence.

This week will be sated, and the key event will be a decision on the rate of the Bank of England. Given that the Committee will have access to the data published quarterly inflation report, you can expect changes in the program of quantitative easing. In addition, we see reports on business activity, consumer confidence and producer prices. Today will be released a series of data for sector lending, PMI manufacturing and the money supply. Hardly any of the reports could cause a reaction of currency, but all of these indicators are important for understanding the state of the economy.

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