Dynamics
On Thursday, September 3 non-ferrous metals ended the session with a slight increase due to strengthening of the market of precious metals, as well as on the background of wide-band trades in the oil market.
At the London Metal Exchange LME aluminum price closed at 1,825 dollars per tonne.
Copper at the close of the exchange was worth 6279 dollars per ton.
Nickel bidding up the price of 18275 dollars per tonne.
Causes
On Thursday, September 3 the price of nonferrous metals showed opposite tendencies, however, despite the mixed dynamics, metals closed with a slight increase. Some analysts believe that the corrective movement in the market of nonferrous metals went up to its final phase, and soon we will again see the uptrend.
From the news it is worth noting that spot sales of iron ore to China from the two main importing countries - Brazil and Australia - in August fell to its lowest level in nine months. This could occur against a background of lower steel prices. Number of ships with iron ore from Australia in August accounted for 30 pieces, against 31 in July, although this is lower than 40 vessels in the II quarter. Number of ships from Brazil fell in August to 7 pieces - the lowest level since November 2008, after a record jump in July to 39 vessels. By the way, and the export of Brazilian iron ore in August also fell by 8,4% to 23,3 million tons. China as a major consumer of iron orein the world can reduce their need for iron ore because its stocks of imported raw materials are large enough. In addition, the Government has once again firmly stated on the reduction of excess steel capacity in the country. Stocks of imported iron ore in the last week of August amounted to 72.15 million tons, showing an increase of 430 thousand tons compared to the previous week.
What to expect?
Many analysts have upgraded their own forecasts of prices for nonferrous metals in 2009 and 2010. Prognostic value of copper in 2009 rose by 12%, to 5005 dollars per ton, the 2010 forecast increased by 25%, to 6614 per tonne. Copper - the only stock metal from which it is expected that next year its value will exceed the current price. Aluminum, nickel and zinc have come to the market in excess of consumption. Declined earlier Chinese aluminum smelters have resumed work, nickel pig iron production is approaching record-high volume, resumed production of zinc. Forecast prices for aluminum in 2009 is 1,609 dollars per tonne in 2010 - 1720 dollars per ton. Nickel in 2009, will cost 14,308 dollars per tonne, zinc - 1477 dollars per ton, in 2010 the price of nickel reached 14,330 dollars per tonne, zinc - 1534 dollars per ton.
Why worry?
In the market of non-ferrous metals continued to dominate the idea of correction after the rapid growth of quotations from the beginning of the year. Copper for 8 months of the year increased by almost twice the optimism associated with the growth of Chinese economy. However, such rapid growth begins to disturb the market participants, as well as imports of the metal in China is showing signs of decline.
The worst of the market has traded shares of LUKoil and Uralsvyazinform
In anticipation of today's major publication review of the labor market in the U.S. active investors in the Forex market is very low
A number of leading stocks of oil companies are now traded in the area of a small reduction
UPC RF completed investigation against members of the Euroset, the case by Chichvarkin Separated
Left indicators for the euro zone PMI and the UK were more optimistic projections
It is possible that statistics on the labor market situation in the U.S. a few touch up
IMF gave credit
ECB is not going to necessarily raise interest rates in the implementation of exit strategy
Forex on the European session