USD

Despite the fact that the increase in the stock markets once again triggered a wave of optimism, putting pressure on the dollar, the whole dynamics is reduced to the fluctuations in 200/300-punktovom range. Economic catalysts until we have seen, so traders turned their sights on oil. Note that the stocks of crude oil in the United States decreased, caused a storm of emotions and led to think that this is the beginning of the stabilization of the demand for black gold. Of course, these indicators should be confirmed at least for another few weeks so we can speak of a trend. However, if Judge sensibly, here are unlikely to wait for something optimistic: as demand for oil could grow if consumers continue to lose their job, income, and after this cut costs?

In addition to reporting on oil, we got only one more release - data on the number of approved applications for mortgages, which were much higher than forecasts, but not caused traders no emotion. Despite the fact that today's calendar more saturated, there are no really interesting indicators, we do not see. Pay attention to the labor market: the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits, as well as the 4-week moving average will reflect the latest trends in employment. The data on business activity from the FRB Philadelphia will be interesting as an indicator of the state of the manufacturing industry, which in some European countries is beginning to show clear signs of stabilization.

EUR

euro could strengthen their position and not on positive economic data, while the overall thrust of the risk. In the meantime, the basic records showed that output in the construction sector, the euro dropped sharply in June of the second month in succession. Reduced to 1.1% in monthly terms has led to a slowdown in construction activity in the second quarter at 1.5% compared to the previous one, when the reduction was 1.7%. In annual terms, construction activity fell by 8.8%, reaching a minimum value since March 1999. A separate report showed that the deficit on current transactions in the euro area rose in June compared with the previous month. Data adjusted by the number of working days and seasonal factors, showed a deficit balance of current operations of EUR5.3 billion compared to EUR0.1 billion in May (EUR1.2 on preliminary data).

Today's calendar iscompletely empty and rely solely on the comments of officials who, it should be noted, we no longer heard. It is clear that the ECB is not going to change until its monetary policy, despite a clear deflationary signals given PPI indexes and CPI. Let's see whether this tactic will bear fruit.

GBP

Pounds had to surrender their positions in connection with unexpected results, which showed the protocol of last meeting Bank of England. We all wonder how many representatives of the Committee supported the decision to expand the program quantify softening, as it turned out that not only the decision was unanimous, so even three MPC members were in favor of a more significant increase in the purchase of assets. And, interestingly, among these three was the head of the Central Bank of Mervyn King, only reaffirming the fact that the country's economic prospects are far from optimistic. So from all this we can conclude that the Bank of England are more likely to intend to continue the policy of mitigation, which would undoubtedly undermine the position of the pound over the medium term.

Turning to fundamentals, yesterday we learned that the activity in the UK manufacturing sector grew in August, reaching the highest level since June last year. Balance promproizvodstva reached -5 to -14 in July. Moreover, a very positive sign is that expectations for promproizvodstvu over the next three months, reached a maximum value of more than a year. Today we are all eyes will follow the performance of retail sector - the positive dynamics of the volume may have little support for the British currency.

JPY

We continue to see fluctuations in the foreign exchange market following the dynamics of stock index, the latter can not boast of certainty and stability. Regarding Japan's economy, today we have not received any reports, but listened to a statement by the representative of the Bank of Japan Atsusi Mizuno. He said that the Central Bank should prepare a variety of operations in the money market, to remove short-term funds that will help smooth complete quantitative mitigation policies.

Thus he hints at the beginning phase of the exit strategy from the period of quantitative mitigation policies, warning that all must be cautious so as not to frighten the sensitive financial markets.

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