Victor Belski, an analyst at VTB Capital
this review, we begin the regular analysis of the oil market. Our current price forecast for Brent oil are as follows: $ 85/bar. in 2010, $ 100/bar. - In 2011 and $ 110/bar. In 2012 Long-term prognosis (for the period after 2015) is $ 90/bar. and based on our assessment of margin cost of developing Canadian tar sands deposits, which today constitute the second largest concentration of oil in the world.
We believe that in 2010 the oil market will return to a state of deficiency in connection with the restoration of growth in world GDP to around 3% per year and an increase in world oil demand by 2.4% to a level this year - up to 86.5 million bar . /day. The latter figure is slightly higher than the forecast of the International Energy Agency (85.7 million bar. /day), and the difference almost entirely attributable to our more positive assessment of the prospects for growth in oil demand from Asian consumers. We look forward to continued shortages in the oil market in 2011-2012.
According to our calculations, in 2010, oil supply will rise by 1.8%, mainly due to the fact that, as we expect the supply of oil by OPEC in the IV quarter. 2010 again reached the level of 30 million bar. /day against 28.8 million bar. /day in the IV quarter. 2009 According to our estimates, the growth of oil producers outside OPEC, will be slightly less than 1%, which corresponds to the latest IEA.
In our view, the price of oil will increasingly depend on a combination of three key factors - the balance of supply and demand, the level of investment /speculative demand and long-term margin cost of production. We believe that this situation will contribute to accelerating the process of pricing in the oil market by increasing role in the process of long-term investors, and its approximation leading to the fundamentals of supply and demand. We believe that, combined with worsening fears about the potential shortage of oil and reach a peak of world production it can be an important factor in the increase in oil prices above the mark at $ 100/bar. And then they rush to record levels in 2008
The main risk factor in terms of our projections are lower than we expect, the pace of recovery in world GDP, and the reluctance of consumers in the United States and OECD countries are burdened by high debts, to spend additional funds in a limited supply of bank loans. Our forecast oil prices could prove too optimistic, and if OPEC earlier than expected, will go to increase production, or significantly reduced the discipline in the ranks of the cartel in terms of compliance with existing qad2uotas.
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