So, the markets continued folding carry trade, which drags the euro-dollar, euro-yen and dollar-yen. The main theme of the last two days - the growth of credit default expectation in the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain). In particular, the 5-year CDS-spread so-called PIGS yesterday widened by about 20-30 bps Portugal yesterday failed to attract the planned 500 million euros from the placement of the annual music - the demand found only 60% of the issue. Yesterday tried to defuse the head of the ECB Jean-Claude Trichet, who1000said that in general the size of the budget deficit in Europe is projected at 6%, for example, significantly lower than in the U.S. (10%). But his words do not have the desired effect. We continue to believe that the buzz around the problems in countries PIGS excessively and unnecessarily inflated. In particular, the total GDP of Greece, Ireland and Portugal is only 6.5% of GDP in the Eurozone. Therefore, by and large, everything that happens in these countries do not really make much difference for the euro-dollar. Spain is a somewhat aloof, yet large probleem with confidence is not, and took fifth place in terms of GDP euro area, 11.8% of GDP in the Eurozone. For comparison, in the first place, Germany, 27% of GDP in the Eurozone. In general, each time falling euro, begin talking about the instability in the Eurozone. Back in 2005, the euro fell to the alleged failure of the referenda on the EU constitution in France and the Netherlands, then in September 2005, “because in Paris burned cars”. And the emphasis on multi-day riots in Paris, appeared in the media shortly after that, as in the U.S. there was an accident in New Orleans because of Hurricane Katrina and the dollar initially fell on it.

While that minimize the carry trade (the fall of the euro-yen and stock markets) is more due to just the euro-dollar. That is, if we talk about the return correlations crisis and resume the theme of avoiding risks, it should be noted a marked contrast with what happened in the second half of 2008. Still, in 2008, folding carry trade took place in a very large extent due to collapse of speculation on the yen. This year is already winding down exactly what the dollar carry trade (the dollar ceases to be a funding currency). Strictly speaking, this process began back in December (Euro falls from the beginning of December), but in December the euro-yen and stock markets were supported by the resumption of yen carry trade. Now, contrary to our expectations, this support has ceased, which led to a fall in stock markets. While the dollar-yen, in principle still holds, and we can not say that minimizes already yenovy carry trade. We expect that soon yenovy carry trade will rise up, and folding the dollar carry trade will cease, resulting in the short term to an increase in euro-dollar, euro, yen and stock markets.

Downward trend in stock markets is more due to lack of ideas for growth, rather than macroeconomic data
As of 17:30 Moscow time the volume of trading on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 180.95 billion rubles
The positive outcome of G7 meeting could lead to a rebound in world stock exchanges, the MICEX index would rise above 1,430 items
If the U.S. today there are no significant sales, the Russian market can rebound to 3-4%
The MICEX index fell by 2.8% (up to December”s levels), but this is no reason for pessimism total
Review of the precious metals market for 04.02.10
Obama guarantees deposits
Treasury: Debt of Ukraine at the end of 2009 amounted to 301.4 billion USD
G7 would discuss exchange rates and financial sector reform