Review of the FOREX market for 03.02.10

Dynamics
U.S. dollar rose sharply in trading on Wednesday, receiving support from the strong macroeconomic data. When the pair EUR /USD again fell below the 1.3900, the pair GBP /USD was lower than 1.5900, and the pair USD /CHF rose to 1.0600. Japanese yen fell against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY broke the short-term mark 91.00, while the pair EUR /JPY is consolidated into the same range above 126.00. Commodity currencies fell against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD is once again in the area of 0.8800, the pair NZD /USD went below 0.7000, and the pair USD /CAD recovered above 1.0600.

Causes
report on employment in the private sector of the U.S. in January was better than expected, demonstrating the least significant decline in the number of jobs since February 2008. Activity in the services sector also continued to grow, as evidenced by the unearned index of the Institute of Supply Management. As a result, the dollar fully compensate the losses incurred during the last few sessions against other currencies.
At the same time, the euro hit after a message appears indicating the planned union of Greece”s largest strike in response to a wage reduction announced by the Government in order to save the crisis-stricken economy. This could jeopardize the plan of the authorities of Greece, approved by the European Commission earlier on Wednesday to reduce the budget deficit. In addition, investors remain concerned that budget problems could spread to Portugal or even Spain, whose economy is one of the largest in the eurozone.

What to expect?
Now investors” attention is focused on a report on the number of jobs outside agriculture in the USA in January, which will be presented on Friday. Signs of improvement in the labor market and in the U.S. economy as a whole is likely to increase the likelihood that the Fed will begin to collapse part of the incentives and eventually raise interest rates. This will make the dollar more attractive relative to other currencies, providing it is thus long-term support.
At the same time, today, market participants will closely monitor the decisions of the central banks of Great Britain and the euro-zone interest rates. Any unexpec9acted actions or comments by the financial authorities can very significantly affect the position of European currencies. If the meeting will present no surprises, the euro and pound will continue bargaining with the same dynamics.

Why worry?
Sudden changes in volatility and a surge is not excluded in the event of a market for new mixed data.

The contradictory dynamics of global sites and neutral dynamics of oil prices are in favor of opening of the Russian sites about yesterday”s levels
The task of “Bears” remains the achievement and the breakdown of the nearest support, located at 1425 points on the MICEX
Progress in today”s trading will be determined by the dynamics of the currency market, where before the opening of a decrease in pair euro /dollar
The opening of trading on Russia”s market should be flat - a situation during the night has not changed
Gazprom will hold annual shareholders” meeting June 25, 2010
Forex: the market froze, players are waiting for the outcome of meetings of the ECB and the Bank of England
Latin America: Brazil fears tougher, America Movil pleases Mexico
Rate for the dollar fell - an overview of cash markets
NBU should not give an explanation for the size of currency collection



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