Dynamics
U.S. Dollar continued its decline. This pair of EUR /USD recovered to 1.4100 mark, a pair GBP /USD went to the area of 1.6360 after testing 1.5800, and the pair USD /CHF fell to 1.0760.
Japanese Yen slightly strengthened its positions against the dollar, but remains in the same range against the euro. This pair USD /JPY fell to 97.00 area, while a pair of EUR /JPY traded slightly above 137.00.
Commodity currencies continued to recover against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD rose above 0.8000, a pair NZD /USD trading above 0.6300, and the pair USD /CAD has fallen below 1.1000.
Causes
After several days, the situation returned to the usual track, when the background of optimistic sentiment and increased propensity to take risks, which helped stabilize the stock pads and investors sell dollars and buy more risky currencies such as euro and British pound. In doing so, the single currency is not reacted to a series of negative data from Germany for the trade balance and industrial production. In addition, the increase in commodity prices, particularly oil, supported by commodity currencies. All this led to the weakening of the United States dollar, which has lost most of the items won after the data on the labor market in the United States.
What to expect?
At the same time, future prospects for the U.S. dollar continues to look uncertain. Effects of the factors supporting the dollar stopped fixing arrived, apparently ceased, and in view of continuing market optimism of its decline may continue in the short term. However, the new growth in the U.S. is possible, if the United States received new optimistic data that are comparable in importance with the data on the labor market, or if the mood of investors has launched in a negative way. In the latter case can be expected to reduce the quotation of shares and a new, more powerful wave of a fixed profit on long positions, open in risky assets.
From the data expected today, interest rates will provide the balance of trade the United States and Canada, as well as data on industrial production and trade balance the United Kingdom. Unlikely that the news from the United States and Canada will have a major impact on the respective currencies, unless the actual values will not dramatically differ from projections. Evidence from the UK, by contrast, will be closely monitored by investors, and they can have a noticeable impact on the pound.
In addition to macro-economic indicators in the U.S. will be submitted to the next economic review Fed beige book.Its publication could affect the mood of investors and, consequently, on the major currencies.
What is fear?
There remains a high uncertainty about the future prospects of the dollar, against the backdrop of what may be abrupt and unexpected changes in its position relative to other currencies.
Morning background now positive for the Russian market, expected growth in the indices at the opening of tenders
Moderately positive external background: America to close a moderate increase, Asia traded mostly up
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