Dynamics
U.S. dollar rose in the auction on Tuesday. When the pair EUR /USD fell below 1.4100, the pair GBP /USD returned to the area of 1.6100, and the pair USD /CHF mov1000es toward 1.0500. Japanese also strengthened against other currencies. When the pair USD /JPY has almost reached the mark of 89.00, and the pair EUR /JPY has fallen below a mark of 126.00. Commodity currencies traded in ranges against the U.S. dollar. Thus, the pair AUD /USD traded at around 0.9000, the pair NZD /USD went below 0.7100, and the pair USD /CAD remains slightly higher than 1.0600.

Causes
U.S. dollar and Japanese yen have been supported on a background of heightened fears that further tightening of monetary policy in China and problems with the budgets of the eurozone countries are hurt global economic recovery. Amid uncertainty surrounding the economic prospects of the demand for asset-seekers grew, and, in addition, investors cut back positions in riskier currencies to the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates.

published macroeconomic data had no significant impact on the market. Thus, the index of consumer confidence in the U.S. in January, showed the growth of the third month in a row. Germany”s IFO index also showed strong growth. But this was not enough to provoke the growth of the respective currencies. At the same time, a preliminary assessment of UK GDP in the IV quarter fell short of projections, resulting in the British pound fell markedly.

What to expect?
Today, the main focus of attention is focused on the disclosure of the outcome of the meeting the U.S. Federal Reserve. It is expected that a key interest rate will remain unchanged, but investors will closely monitor possible changes in the tone of statements by central bank in respect of any periods of rising interest rates in the future or a tightening of monetary system. In the event of any hint of a realistic time frame began raising rates U.S. dollar is likely to resume growth. However, if the Fed once again signal to the fact that rates will remain at extremely low levels for a long time, it could trigger a wave of selling the U.S. currency. Prior to announcing a decision on rates, investors are unlikely to open a risky position.

In the Fed meeting today will also read out a decision on the rates of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. It is expected that the RBNZ will leave a key interest rate at a minimum of 2,5%, while the central bank, Alan Bollard will repeat that the rate will probably remain low until mid-year. This is unlikely to cause a significant reaction from the New Zealand dollar, but any change in the tone of statements RBNZ could provoke a strong change in the positions of the currency.

Also today in the United States will be published sales data on the primary housing market in December. If the actual figures would not greatly differ from the projections, the market response to these data is likely to be limited.

Why worry?
surprise announcement the Fed may cause volatile and countervailing changes in the currency market.

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