Late last week, ended at the leading stock sites fixation profit, the reason for which was a decline in consumer confidence in the United States. With the opening of today's auction in Asia, pressure on the indices continued to rise. Against the backdrop of disappointing statistics on the GDP of Japan, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 2.5%, and the quotations of oil traded at two-week minimum.
The idea of reviving the European and, consequently, the world economy, has been unable to cope with covering the market fear of heights. Information about the decline in consumer confidence in the United States as a launching hook to start locking in profits risky assets. U.S. indexes lost about 1%: Dow fell by 0,82%, SP - on 0,85%. From a fixed profit severely affected commodity markets - oil quotations are $ 68 per barrel.
market quite easily by the statistics on inflation in the United States, which fully met the expectations: the price in the States in July, unchanged from June, but in relation to the past year fell by 2.1%. The recent spurt of inflation, according to the Fed, the markets should not worry: despite the rise in energy prices, the economy has a substantial reserve to keep production costs low. Moreover, against a background of deflationary process in the economy, the Fed gets more opportunities to pump market liquidity, which in turn should put pressure on the dollar and, on idea, should contribute to the growth of commodity markets and, thus, associated with raw materials companies.
Industrial production in the United States, as statistics showed, rose for the first time since July 2008, the truth a little less than the forecasts - at 0.5% instead of 0.6%.
Finally, a reason for fixing the profit index of the University of Michigan consumer confidence fell in August to 63.2 p, v. 66 p. in July and growth forecasts up to 69 p.
As you can see, sore States economy today is the consumption, while industry and finance is gradually stand on their feet. In this context, the concerns of investors is quite logical: the growth in production can not be considered complete in the absence of demand.
sales in the stock market has increased in today's Asian session. The reason for the sales data on Friday a decline in consumer confidence in the States, but also be worse than expected GDP data for Japan. Japanese economy grew in the second quarter at 3.7%, after falling 11.7% in the first quarter and projections for growth of 3.9%. Index MSCI Asia Pacific fell 2.4%, which was the largest fall in the last month. First of all affected shares of exporters. Against the background of a fixed asset gains in commodity stocks seriously affected mining companies. Investors agree that the market already has taken into account in the prices of world economic recovery, and now it is extremely difficult to find new incentives for growth.
We believe that the market reaction to Friday statistics on consumer confidence in the States, and today's GDP data for Japan, excessive, and is mainly due to technical factors. In particular, the market disregarded the fact that the country's GDP grew for the first time in five quarters. Given that in the coming months on the market will continue to experience excess liquidity, and the economy will bring a clear signal recovery, we believe that the growth of stock indices in the short term resumes. The reason for this could be a real estate market data with the United States: Statistics on new building will be on Tuesday, while sales in the secondary market - on Friday.
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