Analysts VTB Capital
price of gold continues to surprise. Attracted by the growth of the speculators rushed to buy together, resulting in quotes flew up the curtain bidding stopped
just a step away from $ 1,000 per ounce. It is noteworthy that the dollar has hardly changed, having played the beginning of the fall of the day, and the VIX volatility index went down against the background of the stability of the global stock markets. Virtually 100% of th inverse correlation between the prices of gold and the dollar this week, suddenly disappeared - and this against the background of the absence of signs of active flight risk or a rise in inflationary expectations.
Our view is that raising rates in the U.S. will be as swift as it was their decline is reinforced by the statement of the President of the Federal Reserve Bank
Philadelphia Charles Plosser has. After the publication of verbatim transcripts of FOMC on Wednesday, he said that in the near future, the monetary authorities must be prepared to act promptly to curb inflation. Thus, in the coming year we still expect the weakening dollar, although it is likely to be constrained (even if some delay) the actions of the Fed. Meanwhile, inflation expectations remain moderate. Far more interesting is the anticipatory dynamics of quotations of silver: the ratio of prices of gold and silver yesterday fell below 66. This is another argument challenging the thesis of the purchases of gold frighten investors: Last fall, silver was highly resold in relation to gold and the price gap at some point off scale for 80. Price of silver, being more volatile, yesterday broke the mark of $ 16. Now, when the quotes back to the June highs, it's time to fall back to $ 15. However, all of course, will depend on the situation in the gold market. The current rally has become self-fulfilling prophecy:
his feed mostly technical buying speculators who are afraid to miss the next price movement of gold. From a technical point of view of the situation on the market last night looked stable. According to our estimates, a new level
resistance for gold is at $ 1,005, and in case of sustained this level of breakdown can be expected to increase closer to the quotation mark of $ 1,100. After yesterday's rapid take-off quotations of gold can also quickly go
down as soon as investors begin to record profits, closing the record long speculative positions. However, in the short term, as soon dry up the excitement, the market will likely stabilize in the range of $ 989-997. Important in terms of market dynamics may have today published statistics on employment in
non-agricultural sectors of the United States.
unprecedented rally in gold prices has provided support for the platinum market, quotations which, however, does not go beyond the wide range and, according to our calculations, will continue to fluctuate in the corridor of $ 1,200-1,260 per ounce. Intermediate level of support for platinum remains at $ 1,220. Changes in oil prices yesterday was minimal and confined to a departure from the previously occupied positions in the movement against the dollar, who played previously incurred losses and the lack of significant
changes in the stock market. In fact, the quotation of oil continues to consolidate after recent slumps, while maintaining solid support at $ 67/bar. (Brent). Further reduction in the price closer to $ 66 may, if today's statistics of the U.S. labor market will fall short of expectations and continued decline in the stock market. If this happens, prices will continue to fluctuate within a narrow
corridor, still feeling the resistance at $ 69. For WTI support level remains at the value of $ 67, and this support is more solid than in the case of Brent, which, inter alia, due to consistently high demand for gasoline and concerns in connection with the hurricane season in the United States.
As we noted earlier this week, from a fundamental point of view of long-term prospects of the oil market looks optimistic as never before, and correction is needed to allow the market to consolidate before a new surge in demand ahead of the fourth quarter. It should be noted that the opening of the new BP fields in the Gulf of Mexico (more than 0.5 billion bar.) Is not a reason to eliminate
positions in oil. Wells drilled by the Tiber is located about 400 miles south of Houston and is by far the deepest in the world. It does not take a mathematician to understand that this is a very expensive project, and it will take some time before it starts commercial operation of the deposit. In this case BP is already the largest producer in the Gulf of Mexico. Interestingly, the press
release BP appeared only a few days after Saudi Aramco confirmed the fact of exploration in the shelf zone of the Red Sea. In the long run, when spare capacity is exhausted, market participants have become accustomed to much higher oil prices. Base metals continue to trade in sideways trend since suffered earlier in the week of losses. Trading on the LME yesterday were quite sluggish. The only exception was the increase in prices for lead. Prices for the metal closer to the mark of $ 2,300 /ton, the last time
recorded last summer. Like last week, investors in large numbers covered short positions amid concerns in relation to supplies from China, once because of allegations of environmental pollution there was closed a number of large metallurgical plants. This naturally led many players
liquidate their positions. Copper prices rose on Thursday, despite an increase in stockpiles of the metal in LME warehouses at 3,400 tons copper prices has supported the rise on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the rally in the Chinese stock market. Today, we should expect some recovery of trades in connection with the release of data on employment in the U.S. for August. Meanwhile quotations copper and aluminum should not go beyond the boundaries of the established ranges. Key support levels for aluminum and copper are still
at $ 1,800 /ton and $ 6,000 /ton, respectively. In the case of copper closer to the support price is $ 6,100 /t.
Bears can feel relatively safe as long as the price of Brent oil below $ 68 a barrel
The crisis has changed the labor market in Russia
Marine Norilsk Nickel has launched direct flights to European ports
Attracting foreign labor to Russia's economy
Gazprom and Korean STX Business Group discussed possible cooperation projects in Russia shelf
Euro slightly weakened, but the rollback was stopped by a mark 1.4250
16.30 possible large-scale movement of data on Nonfarm Payrolls
In anticipation of today's major publication review of the labor market in the U.S. active investors in the Forex market is very low
Rate for the dollar has risen - the evening review of cash markets