Yesterday, a pair of Euro /dollar traded in the U.S. session near the 1.4400 mark. Pound /dollar, after the recovery up to 1.7000 stabilized near the 1.6920 level. The pair dollar /yen after falling to 94.35 marks established in the closure of the day around 95.30 level. Cross-rate euro /yen rose to a session of the United States 137.60, almost 60 points higher than the daily minimum.
The experts noted that the volume of trades in the forex market is low, which contributes to the dramatic changes in exchange rates. At the same time, investors are awaiting the publication of important economic data scheduled for this week. These data, in particular a review of the state of the labor market in the United States for July, may contribute to the emergence of a new trend.
Yesterday Dow Jones index of the New York Stock Exchange rose 33.63 points (0.36%). Nasdaq index rose 2.70 points (0.13%). SP 500 index rose 3.02 points (0.30%).
Also yesterday, the index Frankfurt Stock Exchange Xetra DAX fell 9.83 points (-0.18%). The index of London Stock Exchange FTSE 100 fell 11.09 points (-0.24%). The index of the Paris stock exchange CAC 40 dropped 1.43 points (-0.04%).
Personal income in the United States for June 2009 was -1.3% (forecast -1.0%, previous 1.4%). Personal spending in the United States for June 2009 was 0.4% (forecast 0.3%, previous 0.3%).
Today in Asia remained the main driver market Japanese yen, which is significantly correlated with the dynamics of the stock market. This index Nikkei 225 fell 122.48 points (-1.18%). Index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng fell by 301.66 points (-1.45%). Singapore Straits Times index falls by 41.93 points (-1.58%).
Today in Asia pair dollar /yen fell to 94.85. Rate euro /yen, after testing the local maximum near the 137.50 mark the beginning of adjusted down to 136.40. Exchange Euro /dollar traded at the Tokyo session, near the 1.4400 mark. Pound /dollar stabilized around 1.6950. Australian dollar declined to 0.8390. The drop in cross-rate euro /yen puts pressure on the euro /dollar, which fell to 1.4365.
Experts note that the decline in Asian stock indices facilitates the closure of long positions in more risky instruments, and increased demand for Japanese yen.
Start the European session, has made adjustments to the dynamics of the foreign exchange market. Forex market is closely monitoring the dynamics of stock market and the emerging macroeconomic statistics.
Halifax house price index in the UK for July 2009 was 1.1% for the month, -12.1% for the year (a forecast of 0.6% per month, -12.3% for the year, the previous value of -0.5% for the month, -15.0% per year). Nationwide consumer confidence in the UK for July 2009 amounted to 60 (previous 59). CIPS services index in the UK in July 2009 amounted to 53.2 (52.1 forecast, the previous value of 51.6).
Industrial production in the UK for June 2009 was 0.5% for the month, -11.1% for the year (forecast 0.0% for the month, -11.4% for the year, the previous value of -0.6% for the month, -11.9% for the year ). Manufacturing output in Britain in June 2009 was 0.4% for the month, -11.7% for the year (forecast 0.0% for the month, -12.1% for the year, the previous value of -0.5% for the month, -12.7% for the year).
We see that the macro-economic statistics for Great Britain came out better than expected, causing a local rally in the market pound sterling.
PMI services index in Italy for July 2009 amounted to 44.5 (previous 42.3).
PMI services index in France for July 2009 amounted to 45.5 (45.5 forecast, the previous value of 47.2).
PMI services index for Germany in July 2009 amounted to 48.1 (48.4 forecast, the previous value of 45.2).
PMI services index in Europe (16) during July 2009 amounted to 45.7 (45.6 forecast, the previous value of 44.7).
Retail sales in Europe (16) for June 2009 was -0.2% for the month, -2.4% for the year (forecast 0.3% during the month, -2.2% for the year, the previous value of -0.4% for the month — 3.3% per year).
Today, investors will be focused on the dynamics of the stock and commodity markets and goes macroeconomic statistics. Investors are also awaiting publication of financial reports of major European banks. Forex market traders expect the dollar to bottom out confirmation of the summer range.
My tactical views:
EUR /USD: (5 /10 - trend upwards): To date, forecasts of analysts - to bid in the range: 1.4300-1.4440. Today, expect short-term correction of the market up. Therefore it is possible to short sell on impulse buying from the bottom of 1.4300, T /R = 1.4440, S /L = 1.4290. Positional traders are once again beginning to build up shorts with daytime highs. Actively move the foot, recording a profit.
GBP /USD (5 /10 - trend upwards): For the short-term players better be on sale. Actively move the foot, recording a profit.
USD /CHF (5 /10 - the trend downwards): Today better be in buying. Actively move the foot, followed by the market, while protecting profits.
USD /JPY: (5 /10 trend sideways): Today, trading inside the corridor 94.50-95.50: better to be in a small purchase with a daily minimum. Actively move the foot, followed by the market, while protecting profits.
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