USD

We warned that you should not trust a thin holiday market, when all the traffic over-exaggerated. Yesterday's practically empty calendar has no relation to the sharp fluctuations of a pair of dollar /yen during the day. Blame for everything just market sentiment, and as we realized at the end of Monday, the mood is still not in favor of the dollar. We said that the current week can bring new turns, but it would have to wait a little bit of important events. Unfortunately, today, as well as yesterday, the calendar does not give us such an opportunity.

Thus, we can only speculate, that could trigger a dollar rally this week. Incidentally, more than analysts suggest that the pessimistic prospects for the dollar, and the more articles about the fall of bucks we get, the more likely that the currency still has every chance to turn around. At least on technical factors oversold. Moreover, the movement can be quite sharp. If we look at the next few days, the first important report may be indicators of retail sales, published on Wednesday. The results can be quite unpredictable. On the one hand, September - the traditional period of spike activity of consumers in connection with the beginning of school season. Yes, and the celebration of Labor Day is making a contribution. However, recent reports from the chain stores say sales slump, despite the rather high levels of consumer sentiment. So, if despite such reports retail sales will grow, the dollar will strengthen, at least for some time.

Today, the dynamics of exchange, most likely, will be determined by market sentiment. However, we have little hope for the planned comments Fedrezerva representatives. Given the recent speech of Bernanke's move to tighten monetary policy once the economy stabilizes, (and even more given the market reaction to those words), we can expect similar statements from other Fed officials.

EUR

Even weak economic data failed to kill the appetite for euro bulls. According to the federal office of statistics, in September fallen in price and fuel oil had a downward pressure on wholesale prices in Germany, will outweigh the more expensive consumer goods and food that triggered a partial rollback of prices of recovery in August. In monthly terms, wholesale prices fell by 0,2%, resulting figure was -8.1% y /y.

Thus, we have another proof that inflationary pressures within the region remains weak. And that in itself puts off the moment of transition to higher interest rates the ECB. The theme of today will be the German data on economic sentiment ZEW. And here is not likely to see such strong figures as projected. The fact that the index of expectations can influence the expiry of a program Cash for crock, as well as continued growth in the euro, increasing the pressure on exporters. Thus, if our assumptions are confirmed, wait for the rollback of pair euro /dollar from current levels, perhaps below $ 1.4700.

GBP

Pound stuck in a narrow range and do not move throughout the trading day. The fact that the markets once again there were rumors that the Bank of England will do everything in order to expand the program next Al quantitative easing. Naturally, in the current circumstances race for the stakes, to be the most peaceably disposed CB quite unfashionable, and that affects the rate of national currency. The catalyst for the resumption of the rumors was the performance of the same Prime Minister of Great Britain. Gordon Brown announced plans to sell assets worth stg16 billion, adding that early tightening of monetary policy or the refusal of quantitative easing, the program now could be a serious mistake.

However, the economic background continues to supply us positive signals. Orders and sales in the manufacturing and service sectors have grown considerably in the UK the third quarter compared with the second. Data published today show that the UK economy recovered from the depths of recession, but positive GDP growth has not yet been confirmed. Retail sales in the UK is also actively grew in September. Growth as comparable, and overall sales were the highest since April, as the survey conducted by the British Retail Consortium (BRC) /KPMG. BRC report showed that comparable sales rose 2.8% year on year, while total sales rose by 4,9% y /y. The situation in the housing market in Britain also improved in September, as the proportion of those surveyed real estate agents reporting higher prices increased the most since May 2007, as reported today, The Royal Institute of accredited real estate appraisers (RICS).

Thus, we understand that the British policy of active warning to stimulate the economy, as well as lowering the national currency actually brings real benefits. Naturally, we are still early to talk about stabilization, and even more so, to restore the country out of recession. Now pay attention to inflation data. Growth rates can still cheer the pound, even despite its peaceful attitude of the Bank of England.

JPY

At the Asian markets relative calm to the return of Japanese traders after the holidays. As shown by published this morning economic report, the increase in loans to Japanese banks slowed in September, as large companies to cut spending and banks reduce lending to small businesses because of fears of default.

Now all attention will switch to a meeting at the rate of the Bank of Japan. On one side only came to power, the party wants to show everyone a very rapid positive results, but on the other hand, further strengthening the national currency will only harm the economy. So most likely we will hear something that will force traders to abandon purchases yen in the near future.

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