After a slight recovery in the early weeks, reducing the leading index may continue

At the world's stock markets remains negative dynamics: left on Thursday the weak data on the labor market in the United States and Europe were the main factors contributing to the decline in the leading indices. Investors are worried that corporate profits will continue to fall in coming months on the run, a fall of employment, which, in turn, hinders restoration of consumer spending worldwide. Domestic indices have not been able to win back losses in trading Friday. Today, the reduction of major Asian indices and prices of black gold trading on the Russian market is likely to begin declining by 1-2%.

U.S. stock in the area were closed Friday in connection with the forthcoming celebration of Independence Day in the United States. However, after the minor growth in Europe, Latin America, trading over the next decline, after another trip down quotations of oil and metals. Today in Asia is also dominated by negative mood. Despite some improvement in investor sentiment towards the end of bidding, the leading regional indices lost nearly 1%.

negative expectations for corporate profits of companies currently prevailing in the market may once again be exaggerated. According to the statistics go, the recession in the corporate sector began to wane, as evidenced by the restoration of the indices of industrial production and business activities, while the corporation continued to prolong the straps curtailing costs. Taken together, these factors can affect in better than expected corporate records for the past quarter. Another point is that while many points to the fact that the surge in business activity may be the time - a sort of technical recovery after the prolonged fall in the course of which the company tried to fill a record decline in stocks of the peak of the crisis. Against this backdrop, the U.S. economy in the third quarter will not be able to begin recovery, respectively, the positive dynamics of GDP, in this case, can be expected no earlier than next year.

It is possible that after a slight recovery in the early weeks, reducing the leading index will continue. The sharp decline in volatility and lack of weighty arguments in favor of continued sales growth promising, although it is possible that in the case of the publication of good corporate reporting will demonstrate the market traction for growth, which will be reflected in the short and turbulent stock index rises.

From the macroeconomic statistics, go to this week, is to exit a business activity in the service sphere (ISM non manufacturing) - Today at 18:00, on promproizvodstvu in Germany - tomorrow at 14:00, as well as data on trade Balance United States on Friday at 16:30. In addition, today begins a series of placements in the market Treasuries. Today, auctions will be placing 3 and 6 monthly bill, and ten-year TIPS. Tomorrow is the deployment of 3-year securities at $ 35 billion, 8 July - 10-year treasuries in the amount of $ 19 billion and a 30-year treasuries on 9 July. Such a large amount of initial proposals would put pressure on world stock indices.

Against the backdrop of prevailing on the world stock market pessimism, domestic indices opened today with a morning decline of 1-2%. We do not rule out that already at the end of the day can begin to rebuild indexes, but in general, on the basis of weeks, we are waiting for further reduction.

In neftyanke is worth noting the improvement of the fundamental bases: increasing production of Gazprom, the oil revenues in recent months has stabilized, which in particular allows Lukoil to think about new loans for next purchase.

In the energy sector continues to be relevant is the topic RusGidro additional issue, as well as listing on the LSE, where the bidding company's shares should start today. Additional interest securities companies fuel communications management: in particular, knew that the acting Chapter V. Zubakin company plans to repurchase shares of the company for an amount of 2 million rubles. However, the potential for speculative shares RusGidro substantially limited: the completion of priority purchase additional issue, which is the more held for 1 EUR. per share, may give rise to fixation.

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