Analysis of the Futures and Options “LUKOIL”

Futures for shares of “LUKOIL” (LKH0): in the morning futures LKH0 is the basis of 50 points, while reducing to 12-30 Moscow time on 1% (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1. History of the basis (within days).

number of open positions from the beginning of trading dropped to 100 and was 121 900 contracts (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2. Changing the open position (within days).

In the long term the market remains in a downtrend. Volatility March putov “outside money” lower than the volatility of the March of call out of the money “(Fig. 3). We watch “volatility smirk”, which indicates that in the near future we can see how the growth and decline.

Fig. 3. Exchange IV (within days).

If we talk about the number of open positions, then the maximum amount - on fetters LK17000BO9 (put max, Fig. 4) and Collen LK18000BC9 (call max, Fig. 4).

Fig. 4. Levels of optional support /resistance.

The most likely scenario: a reduction in area 14000.
Least likely scenario: growth in the area 18000.

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