Investment ideas: 1. View gold deposit for a period not less than one year 2. During a depreciation of the dollar to buy the currency and place it on deposit 3. Sell the shares as soon as possible: in November-December, the stock market correction may be.

rally must go on

In September 2009 the first, with the beginning of the new season of business activity, the Ukrainian stock market has shown incredible growth. Last month, the PFTS index added 17.9% (in August, 10.9%), while the Ukrainian stock exchange index (UB) - 16,28% (10,27%). The growth indices since the beginning of the year to October 1, amounted to 83.26% and 79.72% respectively. Moreover, if the spring-summer

2009 are the main driver of growth was positive news from abroad (USA and Europe), now the Ukrainian stock market is growing more by inertia than because of the flow of positive news. Over the last week of September, the key U.S. stock indices have lost an average of 0,4%; Europe declined by 0,1-0,7%, since the U.S. released shocking data on unemployment: 9,8% of the working population, or 15.14 million people, unemployed - a record for the past 26 years. But Ukrainian PFTS index and UB at this time continued to grow: 9,11% and 8,73% (to 553.29 points and 1365.24 points respectively) for the last week of September.

According to analysts, the September increase in the Ukrainian stock market due to the fact that foreign investors are trying to catch up. In July-August, the growth indices could be large, but residents have stopped foreign currency risks, in September the same rate of hryvnia has stabilized and even decreased slightly. Thus in the first autumn month more expensive almost all the papers. Motor Sich shares increased in price by 36,5%, Sumy NPO im. Frunze - 50% (both companies have begun to implement the orders of long-term contracts, which positively affected the quotes of their papers). At 37,5% increase in prices rally Avdeyevka coke production (the company Metinvest, the owner of this company, began supplying coal from its mines in the U.S. Ukrainian plant). Climbed in the price of stocks of metallurgical enterprises: Kryvorizhstal - 15% of CMI. Illich - 68%, Enakievo Steel - by 44%. Moreover, according to analysts, until the end of the price of securities of mining and metallurgical complex is unlikely to fall: shares of domestic metallurgists are undervalued compared with Russia's counterparts (despite the fact that our companies have risen in price since the beginning of the year by 100-200%).

In September, investors bought securities finuchrezhdeniy even though today these shares are considered trash. Interest in them ИK Phoenix Capital analyst Andrew Nesteruk explains speculative demand: the price of paper specially disperse. So as soon as possible to correct the value of bank shares.

Stock experts believe that in October, Ukrainian stock market indices continue to grow: many U.S. companies will publish finotchetnost up to the III quarter, with results expected higher than projected. This will lead to Western markets. Therefore, in October the index UB can reach 1500 points, and the indicator PFTS - 600 points. However, in November, a correction: after growth of the market, investors will record profits, and for this to sell papers (now most of the players put on a short term - from one to six months).

Funds have grown up

In September, open-end investment funds have brought to their depositors 5,45% of the profit (two times more than in August - 2,45%). According to the Ukrainian association of investment business in September of 28 funds have been operating at a loss, four (the maximum loss - 6.49% - fixed PIO GLOBAL - Optimal Balanced Fund). In the three leaders on the yield includes the funds, most funds are invested in equities: Yaroslav the Wise - Equity Fund AMC Univer Management (13.15%), Kinto-Equity MC Synergy (15.59%) and Patrimony AMC ART-Capital Management LLC (16,48%).

Some mutual funds in September, even attracted new customers: the flow of funds in the most profitable public funds amounted to 3 million UAH (admittedly, about the same amount of money has flowed out of unprofitable assets). Analysts believe that in this and next year, some market leaders will strengthen their position by leaving the most unprofitable players. But the emergence of new funds is hardly possible - for Western investors, the Ukrainian market of joint investments unattractive (to invest in high-growth stocks), and the citizens of our country are afraid to trust until the money funds.

Currency swings

In September, the official rate of hryvnia fell to 8,01 UAH /USD, however, he never caught up with the cash and interbank rates. The average rate of purchase of dollars in the cash market decreased from 8,44 UAH /USD to 8,25 UAH /USD (-2,3%), sales - to 8,51 UAH /USD to 8,38 UAH /USD (-1, 6%). The National Bank believe that the strengthening of cash contributed to the hryvnia currency auctions NBU: in September in support of physical persons borrowers were sold $ 240 million, CHF3 million and EUR1, 1 million, another $ 287.3 million spent on lights auctions of foreign currency financial institution.

Bankers the September hryvnia revaluation associated with the increased late in the month the number of sellers of the currency. The market exchange deposits were participants in the auction to sell the Odessa Port Factory. In addition, the end of the quarter - the settlement period, when finstrukturam have to sell the currency to meet the standards of the NBU in the open currency positions, and exporters need to list the quarterly tax payments to the budget. Moreover, according to the National Bank, in September decreased demand for the currency in the cash market: average daily volume of net demand for foreign currency decreased by 1.6 times compared with August.

However, in the first days of October the hryvnia exchange rate resumed its decline - to 8,4-8,45 UAH /USD in the interbank market and to 8,45-8,5 UAH /USD in the cash market.

But before the end of the devaluation of national currency continues: the fundamental reasons for the strengthening of national banknotes no (export growth and inflows of foreign investment). Not expected and the urgent need of market participants quickly sell all of its currency.

Bait for investor

In September the rate of hryvnia deposits have increased by 0,2-0,5 PP Per month, according to the company Prostobank Consulting, the yield of the most popular among the public deposits

(in national currency for a period of three and six months) increased from 18.98% to 19.12% and 19.25% to 19.44%, respectively. Average annual rate of weekly deposits increased from 14,88% to 14,97%. Maximum income for the hryvnia deposits now reaches 26%.

It is possible that the increase in rates due to the news that the Ukrainians threatens another legal ban on early withdrawal of deposits (such a move would provoke a new wave of outflows from finstruktur). The situation in the banking sector remains fragile: in September, the NBU has introduced temporary administrators Hypobank and East European bank. A recapitalize finstruktury Kiev and Rodovid Bank appealed to the Government for dokapitalizatsiey (1.5 billion UAH and UAH 1 billion, respectively).

At such news, some banks have not only increased the rates on deposits, but also started a marketing campaign: in September among the contributors were played flat, gold bullion and foreign trips.

Golden Mountains

the western markets on the basis of September gold has risen in price by 5,9%, which was a record growth in the value of precious metals from May this year. The price of gold reached a peak year and a half - $ 1,024.28. In Ukraine, precious metals also rose in price: the official rate of National Bank rose to 4.68%, cash - by 5,3%. This rate of gold deposits remained unchanged: a maximum of 6% per annum.

Western analysts do not rule out that in October, precious metals continue to rise. Deutsche Bank, for example, improved gold price forecast for 2010, as the weakening of the dollar (the euro) and the acceleration of inflation in the United States will increase the attractiveness of the precious metals as a means of hedging investment risks. According to the German analysts, the price of gold in the next year could grow to $ 1150 per ounce, while the average price of $ 1000.

Domestic gold continue to rise in price in the next couple of months, and this will help not only increase the prices of precious metals abroad, as the devaluation of national currency (nearly all gold sold in Ukraine, purchased abroad for dollars).

Driven by demand

In the first autumn month, real estateprices (in foreign currency), virtually unchanged. Throughout September, the average cost of capital of apartments, according to the Union of Real Estate Specialists of Ukraine, hovering around $ 2000 /sq. m. In this case, according to the think tank Academy Park Lane, in this period the number of transactions of purchase and sale of objects on the secondary real estate market of Kiev has increased by 15,5% compared with August.

Realtors confirms that the transactions in the market really was more because of the influx of buyers: the fall manifested delayed demand (many potential owners of flats waiting for a price floor). However, before buying spree is far and therefore a rise in prices in the near future is not expected: according to analysts, until December the price will fluctuate within plus /minus 0,5-1% from current levels.

Victoria Rudenko

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