aggregate profits of Ukrainian banks, billion UAH.
Ukrainian banks have not been able to minimize losses from the financial crisis. At the end of the second quarter of this year they doubled their losses: the April-June, they rose from 7.02 billion to 14.3 billion UAH. The total number of unprofitable finuchrezhdeny in the country increased from 41 to 64. The main reason аховых the results of the bankers - the continuing growth in non-credit as among the population, and from domestic enterprises. In the second half of projected financial losses increase to 30-35 billion UAH.

Banks makes capitalized

in the first half of few shareholders complained to their banks: according to NBU, the authorized capital of the banking system in January-June increased by only 9.5 billion UAH. (up to 92 billion UAH).. During the second quarter of their ustavniki grow 31 Ukrainian bank: most owners have invested in UkrSibbank - UAH 1.28 billion., PrivatBank - UAH 1.13 billion. and Kredobank - UAH 1.02 billion. It was recorded three reduction of the authorized capital: the Ukrprombank he fell from 1.56 billion to 836 ths. From Rodovid Bank - from 435 million to 783 thousand UAH., The bank Kiev - from 225 million to 2.25 million grn. There is only one explanation: the denomination of the shares was carried out under the Cabinet of Ministers nationalization problem finuchrezhdeny, as required by the Government.

Approximately 20-25 local finuchrezhdeny this summer has already announced plans to increase capital in the second half, about 10-15 banks could face an acute need for additional capitalization in September and October. According to current projections, the peak market capitalization of our banking system will be in October-November. We have a principled approach to the issue of implementation of agreed programs capitalized banks. As a result of a diagnostic survey of banks, which was held in late 2008 - early 2009., 55 banks have been identified that require further capital building. As of August 7, still 37 banks who continue to carry out a program of capitalization, planned before the end of 2009, remaining finuchrezhdeniya or increase in the required amount of capital, or some of them, it was decided to impose interim administration , - emphasized the First Vice-Chairman of the National Bank Anatoliy Shapovalov. In NBU expect to increase capital in the second half of wards by at least 11 billion UAH.

need for emergency capitalization of Ukrainian banks explain one reason: the rapid deterioration in the quality of the loan portfolio. Given the fact that finuchrezhdeny no opportunity to improve their profitability and they are limited in the economy, the hole that they arise from the growth in non-credit, you can cover only the additional capital, - explained the Chairman of the OJSC Erste Bank Joseph Sikela.

Credit buried

According to statistics

NBU weight problem loans in total loan portfolio of banks to grow throughout the second quarter: In April it reached 4.29% in May - 4.89% in June - 5.43%. Even more actively to increase the size of what financiers call real problemki (a count is not only hopeless no return, and Restructured Loans): If back in April, they were estimated at 20-22% of the total loan portfolio, it is in May — in 23-26%, and in June - 27-32%. Indeed, the recent sharp deterioration shilsya loan portfolio finuchrezhdeny. And because risk management is at the forefront, - stressed the General Director of Platinum Bank Greg Krasnov. In the second half of financiers do not expect to improve the payment discipline of borrowers: the most optimistic forecasts, the actual amount of doubtful loans to total loan portfolio will increase to 33-35%, pessimistic - up to 35-40%.

bankers are convinced that all non-active to increase in the retail sector: the growth of unemployment and the strong devaluation of hryvnia, which experts predict that in September-November. According to the National Bank on June 1, 72.5% (equivalent to 179.9 billion UAH.) Loans were issued to the public in foreign currency. Interviewees D Experts do not doubt that in the case of the rapid growth of the dollar and euro in the country, borrowers will not even sell hard currency at reduced rate of the CBR, which he began in the early years. After all, it depends directly on the official exchange rate of the NBU, which, in accordance with the requirements of the International Monetary Fund is no longer in place, as it was before, but reflects the actual quotes of interbank trades.

In terms of growth in non-previously issued loans financiers do not intend to resume lending, which in the first half of virtually stopped: the data bank, lending yurlits in January-June grew by only 6.26 billion UAH. (1.4%) and natural persons - decreased by 25.6 billion UAH. (9.4%). For comparison: in the first half of 2008, the loan portfolio of enterprises increased by 54.3 billion UAH. (20%), population - at 36.99 billion UAH. (23.8%). It can be expected to reduce the loan portfolio to individuals: for the repayment of car and reduce credit debt, after the removal of the mortgaged property. As a legal person may increase the loan portfolio by 10-12%, but this will be largely achieved through the translation of foreign currency loans in grivnevye - Advisor to the Chairman of the Board told Ukrgasbank Alexander Okhrimenko. The total amount of the loan portfolio will remain the same: to reduce the loan will be offset by population growth in the loan portfolio yurlits. The latter will be financed mainly by public and Russian banks. A number of banks will lend to small and medium business program to foreign creditors, - supplemented his head of department policies TNAs Bank Eugene Zinovyev.

Resources melting in front of

Another reason, which will continue to constrain the banks in lending in the second half - is the lack of resources. Finuchrezhdeniya continue to feel it, despite the increase in deposits, which started recently: in June the total volume increased by 3.9 billion UAH. (1.3%) in May - at 1.1 billion UAH. (0.3%). Prior to that, from January to April from the banking system vyteklo 45.69 billion UAH. (12.8%). The only way to banks to withdraw deposits at a stable growth - it is to work with people that they were wrong in the beginning of May and June. In July, financiers have been able to even afford to decline depostavok that actively grew during the first half. Since the beginning of the summer rates grivnevym deposits declined by an average of 0,5-1% and for foreign currency - by 1-2% per annum, - said director of the department for retail business JSC Erste Bank Tatiana Nadtochy.

average return on deposits grivnevym today varies within 19-22%, dollar - 9-11%, euro - 9,5-11% per annum. Despite the declining rates, the bankers plan to increase the volume of deposits of natural persons: the optimistic forecasts, in the second half, they grow by 25-30%, pessimistic - about 10-15%. However, preferences may change foreign currency depositors. In the case of the devaluation of hryvnia population will begin to convert back grivnevye invest in foreign exchange. Banking is not quite at hand, because of bringing in hard currency needed to build substantial reserves in hryvnias. At the same time, demand for foreign currency loans is negligible, so that finuchrezhdeniya will be very limited in investment of these resources - to predict the DC further developments chairman of the bank Khreshchatyk Dmitry Гриджук.

Currently, few bankers are counting on businesses, rates on deposits which do not cease to raise: on grivnevym Investments in May and June they increased by 1,5-2,5%, foreign exchange - on 0,4-0,8 % per annum. To date, the average return on deposits grivnevyh yurlits is in the corridor of 20-23%, the dollar - 10-13%, euro - 9-11% per annum. Legal persons are likely to reduce the volume of their deposits in banks. In times of crisis and lack of real lending companies are resource hungry. In the second half of the volume of investments yurlits could be reduced to 22-25%, - explained Alexander Okhrimenko.

With the hands of a very modest resource base, financiers will have to seriously take on the payments on external borrowings. According to expert estimates, in the second half of Ukrainian banks need to list the creditors about 9,5-10 billion UAH. At least half of that amount they intend to enter into an agreement to restructure loans. In January-June finuchrezhdeniya already paid on foreign borrowing $ 6.525 billion, reducing its external debt to $ 37.6 billion in this financial situation, no illusions about the organization of new borrowing. Markets are foreign borrowings are not available for Ukrainian banks, and we look forward to reducing the external debt of the banking system, - said Josef Sikela. An exception to the general rule may be only the banks with foreign capital, which, if necessary, will help the dollar of their parent structure.

Banks outgrowth losses

New antirekord Ukrainian banks have on earnings: if the results of work in the first quarter losses of financiers amounted to 7.02 billion UAH., then the second they had reached 14.43 billion UAH. From 41 to 64 the number of unprofitable finuchrezhdeny in Ukraine. The main reason - a rapid increase in problem loans and, consequently, the formation of larger reserves than before volumes.

For example, Raiffeisen Bank Aval, taken at the July 1, the fourth largest loss since the three problematic finuchrezhdeny (Ukrprombank, Rodovid-Bank and Kiev), established in 2518 million UAH. reserves and went negative in 1084 million UAH. The situation is similar with UkrSibbank, losses at the end of which half have reached 830.67 million UAH. with reserves of 2539 million UAH. as well as FUIB - 604.127 (Reserves - 1035 million UAH.) and OTP Bank - 565.33 million UAH. (1588 million UAH.). Financiers expect that they will not have to use the reserves, and after repayment of problem loans, they will be able to use the thawed means. We do not consider loans, which are formed under these provisions, lost money. Yes, these loans are not serviced, but we are confident that many of them you can return to a normal schedule of payments, - stressed the chairman of the board of OTP Bank Dmitry Zinc. An equally important reason for loss of growth - this is phasing out intensive operations, which provide the lion's share of bank earnings. Currently, a few banks issue loans, but there is loss of interest onloans of concern, - explained the head of department budgeting, controlling and development of BM Bank Julia Fedorenko.

three banks of five most profitable in Ukraine were daughter of foreign finuchrezhdeny: in first place for this indicator was Oschadbank with earnings of UAH 753.673 million., the second - Privatbank (UAH 405.272 million.), the third - Citibank Ukraine (245.729 mln UAH.), the fourth - Calyon Bank Ukraine (UAH 193.09 million.), the fifth - ING Bank Ukraine (UAH 92.686 million.). Their success is due today, mostly conservative work in the corporate segment. Important role in the success of major retail finuchrezhdeny, according to experts, has played and optimization of networks affiliated with the downsizing. Large reductions in the banking sector affected mainly the retail sector. Some banks declined from 10 to 30% of offices. In this regard, a separation into 5-10% of staff, - said sales manager recruiting company Hudson Tatiana Furtseva. In addition, achieving Oschadbank Privatbank and explain the formation of small reserves: the Oschadbank they amounted to 462 million UAH. (1.1% of the total loan portfolio), and at Privatbank - 2245 million UAH. (3.19%). For comparison: at Raiffeisenbank Aval they had reached 4.9% of the total loan portfolio, UkrSibbank - 5,42%, FUIB - 7,38%, while OTP Bank - 5.36%.

In the second half of the experts do not foresee increasing the profitability of banks. We look forward to continuing the growth of losses, the amount will depend on the rate hryvna, and the number obankrochennyh enterprises, - told Joseph Sikela. Given the dynamics of deterioration in the loan portfolio of banks to losses in the third quarter could increase to 18-20 billion UAH. But by the end of the year to reach 35 billion UAH. - Has added his Alexander Okhrimenko. It is more than just leave negative retail finuchrezhdeniya.

 

Elena Kravtsova

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