Closer to the evening market is aware of the risk of bad records

European stock indices are raised today in front of 1% on the background of the growth index of managers on supply euro. The index of business sentiment in the German Ifo also demonstrated in July, a significant increase m /m than predicted. This has led to some consolidation of course the single European currency, and with it also the quotations in the oil market. Quotations mixture Brent lunch today climbed nearly to the level of $ 70/barr.

Against this background, the MICEX index (-0.15%) on Friday, poised at the closing of the previous trading day, and quotes of leading shares without trading volume in raznopolyarnyh areas. In general, you can see that all the world stock indices are now in a phase of strong bovine trend. This broadcast more talking heads in the western television screens. Short memory, and thirst for easy money forcing investors to buy all the decline in the market, rejoicing how fast rise up into the sky charts and increasing their stock accounts. But that does not mirror the real economy - it is a speculative boom. Everyone remembers that he usually ends abruptly and painfully.

On the background buzz in the market shares, investors reduce their positions in the defense of such instruments as the American gosobligatsii. Yesterday yield on 10-year USTres reached the maximum marks in the last month (3.71%), which is the eve of season scheduled for next week placements of long-term treasury bonds and TIPS in the amount of $ 115 billion and short-term securities of $ 90 billion I think, a decline returns are not far off.

Quotations currency pair EUR /USD has already been a week firmly clamped in a narrow commercial corridor with the borders of 1.4275 - 1.4125. In the case of success on the stock exchange rate of U.S. dollar could easily go down to the annual maximum at around 1.4330. Otherwise, it should wait for a hike pair EUR /USD at 1,410, while the oil to a level of $ 65.5 per barrel.

I think closer to the evening investors more aware of the risk of disappointing reports Amazon.com., American Express and Microsoft, and reduce long positions prior weekend. From the index of sentiment data from the University of Michigan, we also do not expect a large positive. I do not think that today we see a serious correction in the stock exchanges in the U.S., but a short cold shower will be a very opportune moment. However, this decline could be a stepping stone for a new speculative hike up the following week.

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