Close long positions on the Russian stock market is too early

From my point of view to close long positions still early. Last Friday, the RTS index closed at 925.00 point, the current week ended at the point at 1012.62 points. RTS Index gained 9.5%.

news Friday was the possibility of increasing taxes on oil and gas sector. Plan officials on the gas sector is likely to be realized, however, accurately predict the potential losses for Gazprom and Novatek is difficult. Ministry of Finance originally proposed in 2010 to raise NDPI gas to 147 to 255 rubles per 1 thousand cubic meters in order to get additional 50 billion rubles of revenues. However, his initiative was rejected. After this office has offered to raise NDPI to 162 rubles per 1 thousand cubic meters. Gazprom's lobbying opportunities are very large, and of course Gazprom will try to reduce their losses. In doing so, the loss to Gazprom from increasing the tax burden would be offset by rising export prices for gas, expensive oil will make his case.

Increased tax burden is likely to have a negative impact on the shares of Gazprom and Novatek. However, this does not interfere with Gazprom to realize the potential of this half of the exit to the corridor 7-9 U.S. company is now valued too cheaply. Gazprom - a cheap and fair share of business.

Raising the tax burden on oil companies is unlikely. In the oil sector, the tax burden is higher than that of gas. The Russian Government has repeatedly reaffirmed the policy of reducing the tax burden for oil companies.

Gazprom Neft early repayment of $ 375 million. The loan was granted VEBom January 14, 2009 for 1 year. Attracted by the loan funds were aimed at the partial refinancing of Eurobonds issued by the company in 2002. Oilmen nice feel to the crisis, and wait for the market remains strong consolidated financial results of the second quarter. Our favorites are Rosneft and Lukoil.

In my view, with a high probability for the next week you can count on generally good numbers of American makrostatistiki and financial results of companies. Positive has not yet played up to the end of the world's stock and commodity markets. Oil prices have every chance to overcome the landmark milestone in the 70 $ /barrel., And RTS index 1100 points.

Do not forget that the Russian market is narrow, and the dynamics of the RTS index is largely determined by a number of chips - GAZP, LKOH, ROSN, SBER. In doing so, 3 out of 4-core chips are state-owned companies. So say a bet on red. It is believed that the crisis in the state share in the economy rose to 50%. Necessary evil state. support. In this state Rosneft is the most efficient Russian oil company. A Gazprom and the savings have to be a lot of work to increase transparency and efficiency.

In my view, to close long positions on the Russian stock market even sooner.

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