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expectations of devaluation led to that increasingly popular loans in grivna. These results showed a regular survey of business expectations of enterprises, which regularly conducts the National Bank.

the second quarter of this year, the gap between companies that have felt the need to borrow, and those who did not feel, reduced to a minimum - 18,2%. Before that, he fell down two quarters in a row with a level of 32,1%. In the third quarter of 2009 the difference had increased to 23,4%. The sixth consecutive quarter of respondents mentioned the deterioration of access to bank loans, - the report says NBU.

however, do not plan to take credit 53,4% of enterprises. In industry, the proportion of objectors is 50,5%, in transport and communications - 64,7%. But companies, working in agriculture, trade and construction, readily used to bank loans.

Credit, by and large, remained unchanged. The small rise, which can be seen in the statistics the NBU, due to two factors. First - some resources are flowing into the economy via Oschadbank. The second - the resumption of some lines of credit by banks to their customers. The new loan or refinancing - they should be slightly larger than the previous ones , - said the director of economic programs of the Center named after Razumkov Basil Yurchishin.

He noted

amazing statistical effect - lending exceeded the M3 (money supply), which expresses the total amount of all money in the economy. This phenomenon Mr. Yurchishin explained by the fact that M3 is calculated as the sum of deposits and does not include loans.

is noteworthy that the credit would take 62,8% of small businesses and only 39,3% of large. Unfortunately, the National Bank does not result in an explanation of the reasons for that: either the good condition of large enterprises, or, conversely, their overburdened with debt. But statistics show that the majority of objectors expect lower sales volumes in the next year.

Hryvnia is the most popular currency for obtaining a new loan. In general, the currency in Ukraine prefer to 86,9% of respondents. The dollar would like to take credit only 8,5% of enterprises. And among the large companies the highest percentage (17.6%) of those who would draw the loan in the currency - apparently, they are large exporters.

Among the factors that hinder the credits in the first place absolutely all of the companies put high interest rates. The deterrent effect of this factor is determinative. Some of the respondents, who called it, remained at the level of the previous quarter (80.5%) and twice the proportion of respondents who identify any other factor, - stressed the NBU.

In second place, with minor variations, are excessive collateral requirements, the third - exchange rate fluctuations. The first two points - the same as those named in the second quarter, but the fluctuations in the rate used to be only fifth place. In the third place in the second quarter came too soon lending.

In general, 57% of enterprises do not expect to improve the economic situation in Ukraine next year, while another 34.4% believe that it will remain unchanged. 48,8% of companies expect downturn in the economy, with 37,8% - slowing down, even compared with its current pace. Despite the fact that the negative is still prevalent, it is a significant improvement. Compared with the second quarter of negative attitude of companies moved into the category of moderate.

similar negative expected about inflation. In the government's forecast of growth of prices up to 10% believe the whole 14.7% of respondents. Another 22,1% of companies expecting inflation to 15%. Total, 63,2% of Ukraine's businesses are waiting for inflation over 15%. And push prices will be: economic crisis, political turmoil and fluctuations.

These estimates coincide with yesterday's estimates of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), explaining the deterioration of the forecasts drop in GDP in Ukraine in 2009, Ukraine's economy particularly hard going through the crisis … prospects for an early restoration of growth is limited weak external and domestic demand, - says a leading economist at the EBRD Alexander Brewer.

Nevertheless, the experience of previous surveys, the negative is not always justified. This is evident in this study. Only 20% of companies expect the deterioration of their condition and as many await improvement. Among the factors that may hinder the improvement of the companies surveyed identified price increases of raw materials and energy. In the hit parade includes expectations of further devaluation of the hryvnia.

For comparison, the current situation as a negative estimated 27,8% of respondents, but as a positive - only 9%. Thus, positive about their future increases. Substantially diminished expectations of exchange rate stability. Some of the respondents who expected to save the hryvnia exchange rate to the dollar, decreased to 16,5% against 40,3% in the second quarter, - noted in the study.

weakening of the hryvnia expect 79.8% of enterprises. The negative-minded companies and among the many small and big business. As is the case with the population, it is not just an assumption. For reviews of bankers, many clients have long been laid in the business plans for next year's rate 10.12 uah. /$ 1. So, just a small reason that in the cash and noncash markets renewed excitement and speculation.

Sergei Lyamets

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