The Fed determines the trend of stock markets

negative signals from the commodity market and the Asian sites, in particular the next stock market decline in China for more than 4% have contributed to negative opening on the domestic stock market. But the proximity of the majority of the shares of quotations to the powerful support and stabilize the situation on the commodity market have contributed to spread within the day and return to the plus for the majority of shares. Minor failure within a day occurred on the background of the negative statistics for the euro area, so in June promproizvodstvo decreased by 0.6%, with growth forecast at 0.3%. Data on the U.S. trade balance had been moderately negative.

The negative trade balance does not coincide with the projection. This occurred both at the expense of export growth at 2%, and at the expense of growth of imports at 2.3%, but import growth occurred primarily due to higher oil prices, but not at the expense of growth in consumer demand. Imports of consumer goods, by contrast, fell, which was negatively perceived by market participants. The wave lasted for a short sales - a sharp turnaround in commodity markets, and at sites in the United States triggered a wave of positive on the market, which was the closing short, open market after the publication of data on trade balance.

Data on oil and petroleum products were again contradictory, that only heightened volatility in commodity markets. Inventories of crude oil once again rose to 2.52 million barrels, while gasoline stocks fell by 927 thousand barrels. Recently, data otygryvayutsya evening spasmodic movements, so the trend from the stockpile will be short-term nature, which also helps to wait the outcome of the Fed meeting.

session tomorrow is going to be saturated output important macroeconomic statistics. Forecast for tomorrow's start of trading session early, because the outcome of the meeting the Fed can change the mood at American sites dramatically. What we expect from the Fed meeting? First, the rate is unlikely to be changed before the end of this year, but the potential for increasing the stakes in next year's growing all the stronger, because according to futures on the probability of increasing the base rate is estimated at 55%. Secondly, the Fed is also considering extending the program to support lending TALF, which expires in December. If you remember the first reaction to these allegations, they were quite negative, as confirmed in part the continuing problems in the U.S. economy and the lack of apparent positive results from previous steps. And third, will be interesting statements regarding the future prospects of redemption amount gosobligatsy U.S. $ 300 billion, which ends in September: if the program will be extended, the reaction of investors may be negative, because the growth of inflation threatens, as if to recall the most recent data on production prices they were worse than forecast.

The outcome of the meeting will determine the start of tomorrow's session, in case of negative market signals can be adjusted down significantly, given the current volatility in the opposite case - the market will continue growing, emerging in the second half of the current session. The key statistics of the first half of the session will be data on GDP for the euro II block, the results will have a significant impact on the currency market. In the second half of the session key will be data on retail sales in the United States, traditional data applications for unemployment benefits, as well as business United States stocks. Given the saturation of the events are encouraged to adhere speculative strategy, fixing the lucrative position.

Technically MICEX index today is moving in a fairly wide price corridor, as the resistance level of 61.8% spoke-term correction of Fibonacci, the support level in the vicinity of 1040 points. A positive signal is the closure of the small gepa of 3 August, as well as the closure of the morning gepa. Technically, the potential downward movement continues to the 21-day moving average, which is a form of position on the purchase.

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