sharp rise in the dollar ended near the end of last week.

But analysts warn that the hryvnia will be stable only in the short run, followed by devaluation of the currency to 8,5-9 grn for dollar.

On Friday, July 31, the interbank foreign exchange market was closed at the UAH /USD 7,9485-7,9730, hryvnya won in the U.S. still 0.85%. Experts argue that Нацбанку had to take measures to reduce the value of the dollar in Ukraine because of the high demand for U.S. currency from ordinary Ukrainians. The main reasons for growth in the dollar against the hryvnia is now known as the demand for the currency to pay for imported gas and to repay external debts by Ukrainian companies.

largest foreign exchange payments are in the current year, namely at the end of summer - early autumn, they say valyutchiki. A fresh influx of dollars is not particularly kind. Demand for the currency increased, but the proposal remained the same. I think this is connected with the normal activity of Naftogaz and did not rule out that the market has a number of banks and corporations who want to repay their debts, - says President of the Association of Ukrainian Banks Oleksandr Sugonyako.

Actions regulator

What to do in this situation, the NBU? First, extracts from zanachki U.S.. And secondly, presses the tail of those who have dollars available, or those who wish to U.S. прикупить to earn in the future growth rate.

why the major banks, National Bank hinted that they would be worth podrasprodat accumulated currency. NBU did it very nicely: 3 August, he will block 40% of banks formed grivnevyh reserves. In translation into routine language this means: hryvna banks will remain, but they play in the currency market they could not.
In the National Bank expects that grivnevy hunger force banks to begin selling foreign exchange reserves, partly to lower the costs of the dollar.

Measure it - a double-edged. It not only support the hryvnia, and the banks will create additional complexity - will be more charges, more likely to be temporarily unavailable ATM.

But Нацбанку go nowhere: it has the right to spend to maintain the hryvnia is not more than 680 million dollars a month. And virtually the only source of dollars for him was the International Monetary Fund. NBU was what to worry - the export is growing sluggishly, and the Summer in the currency market has proven unusually disturbing. Boom increased slightly during the summer period - it is not very happy. If the metal, chemistry, mechanical engineering, metallurgy excited, will be happy … And of getting the next tranche will speak when the matter will consider the management of the IMF, - the day before the meeting of the Board The IMF said the Chief of the Department of Foreign Economic Relations of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Kruglik. It seems, until the last minute was not sure of the positive solution of the Fund.

NBU

Opportunities are limited, there is no inflow of currency, exchange rate cock twitch from any wind. At a very weak market, any of the activities may deploy a situation in any way. Will circle round the IMF - this will be a trend, would be able to agree Stelmakh at the next issue and the closing papers on refinancing and rekaptalizatsii - is another trend, - underlines the ex Vice-Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Sergey Yaremenko.

When former chief valyutchik country gave this comment about the decision of the Board of Directors of the IMF was not yet known. But the July 28, the IMF agreed to issue another tranche - which means that Ukraine will come in early August, 3.3 billion dollars.

but especially happy that amount will not bring. All of these tranches are intended only for external payments, so they are the economy, in fact, is not affected, and the conditions of trench would lead to a deterioration of the corporate sector, - indignant Yaremenko.

What will happen to the course

right conservative Sergei Yaremenko, of course, but adds optimism that the economy has reached bottom, imports declined, the demand for dollars is not particularly reinforced by the existence of pockets of Ukrainian hryvnia free.

And bankers say that the justifiable reasons for crossing at 8-9 hryvnia to the dollar just does not, but a further move would very much depend on the attitudes of society and of inflows from abroad. On a level ground is inflation panic. Autumn begins election campaign, will be a substantial amount of currency into the country. In addition, the economy and the European Union and the United States is gradually coming out of depression, we also passed the bottom, the people suffered deposits in banks. Therefore, the economic basis for growth course not, there is a purely political , - said Deputy Chairman of Bank Finance and Credit Igor Lvov.

sincerely hopes for stability and importers, which strongly depend on the fluctuations, and some suffer from the 13% allowance for the import of the Cabinet canceled only in part. We expect that by the end of the summer of 2009 a situation of stability hryvnya rate will remain unchanged. To speak of a long-term is difficult. Hryvnia devaluation probability is quite possible, - Elena looks Dunin, director general of the official importer of Mazda and Suzuki in Ukraine JP Auto International Ltd. .

precarious balance indeed. The demand for currency from importers fell: in comparison with May 2008, in May of the current imports fell more than 50%. But the influx of currency is not observed: direct investment in the country almost non-existent - for the first 5 months of 2009 in Ukraine was about 1.8 billion dollars, that in 2,4 times less than during the same period last year. It is easier perhaps to banks with foreign capital, which continues to support the foreign shareholders. Just in the last month received assistance from the owners of BM Bank (10.7 million euros), Swedbank, Swedbank Invest (33 million dollars) and bank Forum (80 million dollars).

Real

same sector aspires to autumn and the arrival of money in Ukraine by the election. We are investing mainly in the banking sector, which is related to the recapitalization. Inflows of foreign money into the real economy almost non-existent, - underlines economist Concorde Capital investment company Andrey Parkhomenko.

Yes, and another tranche of the IMF, however criticized the Fund to play a role in stabilizing the national currency - not just psychological. Indeed, the NBU already been forced to issue currency to repay external debts. And come tranche - The National Bank will have the opportunity to spend the reserves, not only to the calculations with external creditors, but also to support the hryvnia, even in the cash market.

However, it is worth remembering that there is a pessimistic forecasts on the dynamics of the GDP - the same IMF predicts -14% on the basis of 2009, while more recently the reduction predicted only 8%. His contribution to the exchange rate would stagger hryvnya, poured into rekapitaliziruemye banks - in one way or another, but the money doberutsya to the foreign exchange market.

But the most serious threat to the exchange rate is UAH budgetary problems: by the autumn the Government will have in one way or another to begin printing blank money. Of course, the Cabinet will start screw Нацбанку hands, so that at least until the date of voting spent foreign exchange reserves to maintain the course. Who in the dispute would be stronger arguments, this is not the risk of saying no.

Pessimists say 10-12 hryvnia to the dollar by year-end. Optimists - about 8.5. The authors seem more realistic rate of 9.3 hryvnia to the dollar in December, and selected for this level of course is likely to be in a few short jerks with possible downgrade.