Earnings

Ukrainians continue to decline. According to Goskomstat, published last week, the real wages in August compared with the previous month decreased by 4,2%, par - on 4,4%, writes Business Capital.

 

Economists believe that the year-end, real wages podtayut by 10-11%.

fall and growth

Decrease in nominal wages (month to month), recorded in August, there was the first time since the beginning of the year. At the same time reducing real wages have become chronic symptoms - only for the first half, she sank 10.1%. In July, the figure also accounted for 10%, and next month, the dynamics of the fall was accelerated to 11,3% (compared to the same period in 2008).

In August, traditionally pay less in July due to a seasonal reduction of working hours in the agricultural sector.peculiarity in 2009 was to reduce wages in the last month of summer in all sectors except construction and transportation. In our opinion, the reason was the massive departure of workers in leave at his own expense, - commented the DS situation the analyst of investment group Socrates Sergei Nevmerzhitskaya.

According to the statistical agency, a substantial increase in wages (compared to August 2008) was recorded in companies providing public utilities and personal services (by 21,7%), aviation and water transport (33.3 and 22.0 %, respectively), health (15.0%) and education (19.0%). At the same time, their levels declined in construction (by 23,2%) and administration (0.9%).

highest revenues in August were recorded in the capital (where the average monthly wage amounted to 3126 UAH.), Donetsk (2136 grn.), Kiev (2009 grn.) and Dnipropetrovsk (2003 grn.) areas, while the lowest - in Ternopil (1443 grn.), Volyn (1464 grn.) and Kherson (1477 grn.).

Rescue - sotsvyplaty

The continued decline in real wages and the shift in the negative dynamics of the nominal plane indicate the continuation of the recession in the economy. Analysts believe that in the near future should not expect to improve the situation.

The only factor that will stimulate the growth of wages in the current year is the increase of social payments from the state budget in anticipation of the presidential election. The negative economic situation, which continues until the end of the year, forcing us to reconsider its forecast of the expected level of reduction in real wages - in 2009 for the year this figure may reach 9.2%, - analyst PAO ING Bank Ukraine.

By the end of this year, a decrease in real wages can reach 10-11% (taking into account projected inflation at 15%), and a nominal amount to UAH 1950-2000. As compared to December 2008 this figure could be reduced by 2, 5% - is echoed by fellow director of information-analytical center FOREX CLUB Nikolay Ivchenko.

appropriate rates will decrease, and real disposable incomes. They will pressure inflation and slowing growth in nominal wages. Although the second quarter of 2009, the fall amounted to only 8,3% (year to year), we expect that in the second half of this figure exceeds 10%.

As a result, the decline in real income this year will amount to 12,5% (year to year), - promise to analysts at Astrum Investment Management. The unemployment rate in the country may be near a record high - 10% of the working population.

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