Premier Yulia Tymoshenko, referring to recent data, the State Statistics Committee, said: promproizvodstvo in July rose by 4.9% compared to June. I can confidently say: the Government and me as prime minister would be able to overcome the crisis, and this is no longer any doubt, - concluded the Prime. These words would be confirmed as released by the figures on the evolution of GDP. The rate of fall slowed to 20.3% in the first quarter to 18% in the first half. Too many, but smaller.

However, we interviewed experts believe that the findings of the premiere too optimistic. As calculated Goskomstatistiki, showed the highest growth industry: 20-24%. That stretched the rest of industry. And in the food processing, by contrast, decline of 3.3%. And vodka and brandy made smaller by 62% and 73%.

In July, has thrown up producers of vodka and cognac, which tried to sell a maximum of production in June, with the old excise - said economist investment company Astrum Alexei Blinov. - The metallurgists July was a very good month, but just because the world market of metal depleted stocks, and traders simply store bought products. It is more an anomaly than a regular trend, and in August will surely metallurgy recession. By the way, the 4.9% growth in July - far from the record, for example, in February in relation to the January industrial growth was 5.4% in March to February - 8,3%. But then no one shouted: we jump out of the crisis. Yes, there is some improvement. June 2009 to June 2008 gave a drop promproizvodstva 27 , 5% and the July to July - 26,7%. But still it is a very large numbers drop.

agrees and economist Alexander Zholud: If at the beginning of the year the company had no orders, and by his mid-top a little work - the growth seems to be there, but in absolute terms it is small. sinking to the bottom, and then come to the 3% - it will still be deep under water.

What is

Recall that we predicted last month the situation in the economy, it drew attention to several key factors. First, it is the dynamics of our exports. Here, at the expense of Metallurgists, the growth there. But, as we can see, not all believe it will last long. Very cautious in their projections, and representatives of the market from. But there are optimists. According to analyst IK Concord Capital Andrew Gerus in global engineering began recovery. And hence the demand for steel will grow steadily until the end of the year, at least.

Secondly, the dynamics of investment. It has no space - private investors have turned their activity, and the Government allocates to investing in the economy inherent crumbs (on completion of a few houses, for example).

third factor - the population and bank loans to enterprises. Here lately there is a revival. But really слабенькое. As before, a loan is very difficult and draconian conditions. In the autumn of great changes are not foreseen. Thus, the movement for the better can only be for export (and then, under the question). It will allow us to continue to slowly rise from the bottom. But the payments to the surface without the credit and investment, alas, does not work.

National Bank creeping kills hryvnia

On Monday, National Bank again lowered the rate of hryvnia against the dollar - this time by almost two pennies: from 7.749 to 7.767 grn. /$. Interbank rate also fell to an average of 5 cop. - Up to 7,9 grn. /$, But on the cash market to buy dollars now 8,20-8,25, 8,35-8,40 UAH sell for. /$ (This is for 5 cents cheaper than on Friday, but the currency is not always exchanger).

As we reported in the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine, in August, demand for the currency as to Interbank, and in the cash market, consistently exceeds the supply, so the National Bank had to reduce the price hryvnia, but to what limit will drop the official rate, to answer difficult. NBU currency only now sells at auction for applications kombankov to repay foreign currency loans to clients, since the beginning of the month sold 73.6 million dollars, which in general is not much and could not stop the decline rate. At the same time, the experts of Today have argued that in fact the NBU gradually creeping devalue the hryvnia. The dollar rise - bubble, which burst after the election and the dollar will fall. But now, the election of оффшоров goes currency you want to be like, you can sell more expensive, and therefore raise the rate - Vice Chairman of the Board approves the Bank Igor Lviv. - There are four economic factors in favor of the fact that the dollar, at least, should not increase.

This

deflation in July, industrial growth, the stabilization of the banking system, finally, getting the next tranche from the IMF. It would seem that a continuous positive, but the crisis of the dollar was 7,20-7,40 grn. And now we seem to jump out of the crisis, and why it is growing. Well, on the cash market all of this outweighs the one factor - public confidence that tomorrow will be the end of the world, why we have to have a green. Predict what the course by the end of August, Mr. Lions refused, but noted that a fair rate - not more than 7,20 UAH. /$. ICPS analyst Alexander Zholud believes that NBU currently down hryvnia rate to reduce the external deficit, which exports 200 million dollars more than imports, as well as to interested exporters, particularly of metallurgists, who last month emerged a substantial recovery, the currency return Ukraine: I think that the official rate of hryvnia fall by the end of August to 7,90-7,95 grn. /$, then NBU will be released on Interbank of intervention, and will hold a course at this level.

second wave of the crisis: to be or not to be

experts explained that in the coming months can save Ukraine from collapse, but that it can drown

Over

1. Budget failure

The budget deficit is growing. To find the money to pay Public Employment, Cabinet must be even more reduced state, which hurts the economy (the sector is not developing, not creating additional jobs). True, the Cabinet may be a way out - hard to print hryvnia and close all the holes in its treasury. But it will cause severe inflation, which once again be hit by the economy.

2. Political instability

The campaign deters investors - no one invests money in Ukraine, not realizing that it will be in six months.

3. Payment of Debts

autumn give the greatest benefits, both goskompany, and commercial banks for external debts, which will increase the demand for currency and create pressure on the hryvnia. Not everyone will be able to pay its debts, and therefore declare the default with the prospect of bankruptcy.

4. End export illusion

According to some experts, the fall ends with a seasonal increase in demand for metallurgical and chemical enterprises, thereby reducing the influx of currency into the country and cause a new recession in the industry.

5. End of stock

pre-crisis stock funds and businesses, and people coming to an end. No new resources - banks will not lend. And then there is the threat of a new wave of bankruptcies.

Against

1 Increased exports

many experts predicted, reviving exports of metallurgical and chemical products - not temporary, it will continue to gather momentum. The fall of the trade balance will improve the export of grain. This would increase profits, as well as the flow of dollars into the currency market.

2. Reducing the price of gas

It is expected in the fourth quarter. Strengthen the position of our exporters, metallurgists and chemists, as well as some healthy NAK Naftogaz.

3. Global Trends

Japan, Germany and France, the economic situation stabilized. As China continues to grow. So, the world economy rises, would increase demand for our products and, possibly, our banks will again have an infusion of foreign lending to the economy.

4. Increased assistance from international organizations

in the near future Ukraine should get next tranche ($ 2 billion) from the IMF, and the issue of allocating $ 400 million from the World Bank. A significant portion of these funds are planning to put on stabilizing the situation in the banking system, as well as to strengthen the hryvnia. However, if you talk about the long run, Ukraine will still have to pay on these loans, which will surely negatively affect the economy.

Dmitry Korotkov, Alexander Panchenko,

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