Yesterday, Russia”s market has once again confirmed the qualitative nature of growth that began in mid-December last year. Model indicator of net purchases of long-term index MICEX (OBV-LT in Figure 1) for the first time since the crisis has stopped falling (maximum was reached 30/05/08) and started to grow (from 15/12/09). In our market continues to set long-term positions.

technical correction MICEX Index (min 1454.91) to the level of weekly inventory prices (1454.5) allowed short-term speculators to unload part of their portfolios. The derived short profiteering money - also a good support for the commission of new purchases.

growth is not only in the direction of price targets, but also in breadth, ie, across the spectrum of traded securities (see index RTS2).

Trading on MICEX is gradually gaining momentum after the holidays, and, most of it goes on the growth of the index - is well demonstrated yesterday”s auction. Market neatly protorgovyvaet new price levels. Hence, investors are willing to go higher.

Immediate objectives of growth (in January) will remain the same ~ 1540/1550 (~ 5%). Support in the form of a weekly book prices grew today with 1,454 to 1,468 p. In the next few days unfold the struggle to overcome foreign 1500 n. first check the strength of the bulls may come early next week. In early February, we expect a general deterioration in market conditions, but short

active beginning of the year on all world stock markets suggests a high probability of inflating new bubbles, in the first place, in the most risky assets. According to our estimates, these risks will be particularly relevant to the May /June. &lt1000;br />
Comparison of current values Infina Composite Index with a range of fair value (Fig. 2) clearly indicates a weak fundamental capacity (~ 5%) for further growth. Recall that in our financial model of fair value (Fair Value) is calculated on the basis of “here and now” and not a 12m-target `th, as is customary in most other models of evaluation. Thus further growth of long-term positions can be justified only from the standpoint of expectations of future earnings growth that happens in recently.

In general, this diagnosis is true for many of the world”s stock markets, which is now awaiting restoration has become a significant driver of growth. An excess of cheap liquidity is the most fertile ground for inflating new bubbles.

The situation is compounded by the fact that the monetary authorities are interested in this. The world economy is trying to get out of the pit of investment in 2009 is one of the major obstacles - weak consumer demand. In a crisis, people began to consume less and save more. Financial bubbles in addition to anti-inflationary functions (absorption of money for the continuation of emissions) can contribute to inflow of funds of private investors from the scope of savings into more liquid instruments, while encouraging investment in riskier projects. Thus inflating bubbles designed to involve these resources in the form of additional investment resources in order to reset the real sector. So far these attempts have not produced the desired result.

The main factor that will determine the dynamics of Russian sites in the near future, remains an American corporate reporting
In the first half of the trading session in Russia can again count on the market a few attempts to adjust
In an uptrend on Russia”s stock market has not yet traced the negative symptoms
Among the outsiders are now commodity stocks of companies that can lose 2-3%
The closest resistance level on the MICEX index was at around 1500 points, support - 1475 puntka
About the turn of the uptrend would be to say, if the value of the MICEX Index fall below 1400 points
While the MICEX index above the 1410/1405 points, more logical to wait for new annual peaks than good correction quotes
Forex: Euro on Wednesday morning fell to a minimum of 5 months, the problem of Greece is increasingly under pressure
In today”s Asian trading single European currency fell against the U.S. dollar to the minimum values for the last 5 months