On Tuesday, Russia”s stock market showed a downward momentum trades on the MICEX index. Factor to the decrease continues to favor the negative dynamics of trading on global stock and commodity platforms, against the backdrop of tightening monetary policy in China and plans to introduce restrictions on the activities of banks in the United States. By 15:00 Moscow time the value of the MICEX Index reached its minimum and amounted to 1,370 items, in general, despite the weak growth of UK GDP for the 4 quarter to 0.1%, the market looks oversold. As a result, the market began a modest purchases, which helped the index and the MICEX shut down for at least a minor note on the value of items in 1385, resulting in index dipped 2.2%. Worse market looked paper-oil sector, amid the news of no use from January 19, zero duties on oil exports from a number of fields in Eastern Siberia.

At the auctions in the U.S. also observed negative dynamics. After opening with a gap down, the dynamics of trades in the first half of the session was rising, the growth factors served as the output indicator of consumer confidence, whose value was much higher expectations and amounted to 55.9 points. Nevertheless, by mid-session on the market, showing growth of 0.5%, investors appeared perfectly natural desire to take profits before the next meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and President Barack Obama”s speech in Congress. On this background is still worse than the market looked securities of the banking sector, and the results of the auctions the index of wide market SP 500 fell 0.42%.

External background at the opening of Russia”s markets adversely. Japanese Nikkei fell 0.71%, Chinese Shangha1000i Composite fell to 1.08%. London Brent traded at a mark of $ 73.1 for the March contract. Currency pair EUR /USD is trading at 1.405. Futures on the U.S. S P500, are once again at a minimum, decreasing by 0.09%.

Today, we expect to see the opening of trading in negative zone and stabilization of trades at the level of support in 1370 of items on the MICEX index, due to a significant reduction of “risk appetite” among investors. Further dynamics of bidding will be determined by the situation on the currency markets and the dynamics of changes in prices of futures for SP 500. Bidders now pay attention to sales of housing in the primary market in the U.S. and data on stocks of petroleum and petroleum products in the United States, leaving at 18:00 and 18:30 Moscow time, respectively. According to the American Petroleum Institute is expected to increase reserves in case of confirmation of the information U.S. Department of Energy, we can see continued correction in oil prices, which can descend to the lower limit of the corridor in the 70-72 dollar per barrel. Nevertheless, the basic dynamics of the market will give the publication of the report the Fed on interest rates and cover letter to him at 22:15 Moscow time. Thus, after opening with a gap down and stabilize the MICEX Index in the 1370 points in the first half of the session, the market will drift in the wake of changes in foreign exchange markets. In particular, should carefully monitor the evolution of the euro /yen, which well reflects the dynamics of “risk appetite” of Western investors.

In general, we expect to continue strengthening the yen and the continuing drawdown in carry-trade funding currency. Thus, in the second half of the session most likely continuation of the correction on the equity market and the stabilization of trades at the level of support in 1360 of items on MICEX.

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U.S. index unexpectedly fell on Tuesday in anticipation of the Fed signals
If the MICEX index will go for 20-30 points lower, it will be possible from a technical point of view, the probability of a decline to 1200-1250 points
Markets have not yet determined the medium-term direction of further movement
Key events today - the publication of the results of the next meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve and Obama”s speech - will take place after the close of trading in Russia
During the day will be observed multidirectional movement of quotations, in the afternoon session of the possible growth of securities of certain issuers
Total to date on Russia”s stock market will be neutral
In the short-term technical factors largely provide some stabilization quotes Russia”s monetary unit
Today will be shaped rebound up to the nearest resistance level: 1400 and 1420 points on the MICEX