On Friday, Russia”s stock market has increased the downward correction. Outside the background in recent days, became increasingly strained, leading to a reduction in demand for risky assets. The main concerns of investors this week again focused on the United States, Europe and China. Thus, the budget crisis in Greece and its impact on overall financial stability of the euro zone, the possibility of manifestation of such risks to other vulnerable economies of the EU (the so-called group of PIGS) continues to put pressure on the markets, resulting in the strengthening of the dollar against the euro. Meanwhile, China gives more signals of intent to cool credit boom, and probably soon raise1000interest rates, which can lead to stunted growth of Chinese economy and reduce demand for oil and metals. Additional pressure on oil prices has had a record of the U.S. Ministry of Energy, under which load oil refining capacity in the country has fallen to its lowest level since 1989

Finally, on Thursday, U.S. President Barack Obama made radical proposals to limit the size and allowed operations of American banks (I mean, in particular, the prohibition to finance any form of hedge funds and private equity funds, as well as trade in securities their own expense). This statement continues a policy of tightening of banking regulation - the week before Barack Obama suggested the introduction of a special tax on the largest U.S. financial companies. To all other added unexpected uncertainty pereutverzhdeniya B. Bernanke, head of the Fed on Feb. 1 in the Senate - a number of senators opposed his candidacy, despite the recommendation of Barack Obama that brings to the market more unstable.

The combination of these factors led to a sharp drop in stock indices on world exchanges, the leaders of the decline, of course, were the stocks of the financial sector. At the same time world oil prices on Friday fell back below $ 75/barr., Ie returned to its lowest level in a month. Falling prices of metals per day an average of 2-3%.

to negative external background of Russia”s stock market continued its downward spiral, despite improvements in forecasting agency Fitch sovereign credit rating to “negative” to “stable”. Additional driver of sales for our market has become a significant depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the currency basket. At the end of the day the MICEX index lost 1.78%, RTS index - 2.67%, roll below 1500. In leaders decline were shares of banks - Sberbank (-3%), VTB (-4%). At the same time, finished the day in positive territory Severstal shares (1.7%) and telecoms. Sector support has instructed Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to allocate shares of Rostelecom owned by ASV, in trust VEB, which could be interpreted as a signal to accelerate restructuring.

At the evening session Forts futures on the RTS index and the “blue chips” at first tried to win back part of the fall, but then went into negative territory following the continuing decline of U.S. stock indexes and oil. At the end of the day U.S. indexes lost more than 2%, and a three-day drop in S P500 has broken records since March last year.

Today, we look forward to the opening of trading on Russia”s market in the negative zone, since the deterioration of the external background after closing the main trading session on Friday have not yet played. Asian stock indexes this morning, traded in the red, but in the last hours of the stock and commodity markets has improved a bit - the price of oil and metals are moderately increasing, the U.S. futures emerged in the positive zone. This gives hope for stopping the fall or even growth in Russia”s attempts to market after opening with a gap down. During the day of the relevant makrostatistiki can note a report on sales of secondary residences in the U.S. and a number of corporate reports of U.S. companies (in particular, Apple, Halliburton, Texas Instruments).

The coming week should focus on macro-economic reports and the U.S. Federal Reserve meeting (26-27 January), which can determine the direction of the markets. In the comments the Fed will be looking for indications of the possibility of extending some of the buy-back programs of assets (that can support the market) and /or changing the wording of the willingness to maintain zero interest rates for an extended period (a hint at a close rate increase may lead to further strengthening of the dollar and selling the risky assets). From tf69he American makrootchetov most significant will be the sale of new buildings, preliminary estimate of GDP for 4Q09, the index of consumer confidence and Chicago PMI. From the global events of this week we note the World Economic Forum in Davos (January 27-31), which may sound new ideas on the problems and challenges of the global economy.

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Fixed triple

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Oil quotes now stabilized, rose by 1% compared to the Friday lows
The question of the continuation of the correction in Russia market remains open
After declining in the early session, Russia”s platform will try to close the gap at the opening
MICEX index may soon withdraw to the line of 1380 points
Amid falling oil prices may look worse than the market of paper oil and gas sector