Until the end of 2010, Ukrainian banks are going to restructure about 30% of its debts …
rating agency Standard Poor”s calculated the amount of repayment of bank borrowings. According to his forecasts, Ukrainian banks, which allowed defaults in 2009, will likely return to creditors before the end of the crisis is not over 40% of debts. SP Analysts believe that most redemption statistics of external and domestic borrowing spoil banks with the interim administration, but do not exclude any problems with repayment of loans and other financial establishments.
interviewed financiers are confident that in 2010-2011. Ukrainian banks will be allowed mainly technical default: delay in repayment of borrowings and payments are not in full.
“Most banks last year went to a technical default, and then restructure, distribute and timely payment of debt servicing. A number of banks are allowed to survive, as has eliminated the need to divert significant resources in time of shortage of liquidity”, - said Head of Department analysis of financial markets, ING Bank (Ukraine) Alexander Pecheritsyn.
As of early December, the volume of total domestic debt of domestic banks stood at 6 billion UAH., External - $ 29 billion in 2010, according to estimates of experts, the financial institution will need to pay about 3.4 billion UAH. on domestic debt and about $ 6.4 billion on external.
“From the payment of external debts should be noted the imminent redemption of Eurobonds Ukrsotsbank at $ 400 million, UkrSibbank - at $ 200 million, VAB Bank - a $ 125 million, PIVDENNY - $ 100 million, as well as syndicated loans” Forum “, Swedbank, Ukreximbank , Raiffeisen Bank Aval and OTP Bank “, - underlined the senior analyst of investment company Phoenix Capital Maria Mayboroda.
But it seems that the real payments on its debt this year will not all banks. “We allow the restructuring or refinancing (not without the help of parent structures) on more than 30% of public obligations of banks,” - said a leading financial analyst of Credit-Rating “Victor Szulik. In 2009, it was quite common: according to various estimates, the Ukrainian financial institution received a deferment on payments 50-60% of external debt and 35-40% - internal.
“For example, Alfa Bank (Ukraine), FUIB and Finance and Credit Bank, agreeing on a restructuring, creditors offered to return 100% of the debt with a delay of several years in exchange for higher interest rates,” - said Maria Mayboroda. The largest external creditors Ukrainian financial establishments in the past year were the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, International Finance Corporation, and Deutsche Vank, Citibank, Credit Suisse and Cargill Financial Services International.
Until now, Ukrainian banks have not allowed any meaningful default (full waiver of repayment of debts) on external debt. Interviewed experts admit such a scandal only in one case: if an agreement with creditors would not be able to bank “Nadra”.
“Negotiations with a group of Western creditors on the restructuring of eurobonds on $ 175 million now are down on the brakes, and no one on their appeal to the Cabinet and no answer”, - told the specialist of international trade investment company “Syncom” Artem Mateshko. Even in the middle of November 2009 the Swiss UBS, engaged in debt restructuring bank “Nadra” on the Eurobond, signed a memorandum of understanding with the government in late December issue of new securities for the long term. It was assumed that the “old” bonds for $ 175 million to the new exchange, thus paying the bank last for a long time. The only condition for such manipulation was the restructuring of debts of other troubled financial institution - on trade finance and syndicated loans for more than $ 600 million
“For this debt negotiations were Commerzbank, Fortis and seemingly unable to agree. However, the case with the exchange of Eurobonds has not progressed,” - said Mr. Mateshko. Instead, the Cabinet took the initiative to transfer assets and deposits of Nadra in Rodovid Bank. The financiers do not doubt that after this, followed by withdrawal of the license and the elimination of pseudo-bank. This is confirmed by the decision of the NBU in Ukrprombank: 21 January, he issued a decree on liquidation of the financial institution. It happened after the transfer of assets and deposits in the Bank Rodovid and start to pay depositors.
Ukrprombank But there was no large foreign debt. “The lenders, headed by one of the world”s largest banks - the Swiss UBS - promise a large-scale scandal. Once Nadra put in liquidation, and the bondholders at $ 175 million - in a single queue of creditors, as assumed by our laws, they funnel into their releases around the world about the violation of agreements with the Cabinet and will sue. There is no doubt that lenders will make every effort to rcebeduce the investment of sovereign rating of our country. So when the crisis is all the other Ukrainian borrowers will be ever hard to convince Western financial institution to give them credit, ” - said the head of a investment company.
Observers believe that the denouement of history owed the bank “Nadra” will have to wait until the end of the election race and to negotiate with creditors will be the new Prime Minister.
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