Here and autumn has come …

Russia

Russia's stock market during yesterday's trades had lost part of its capitalization: RTS index fell by 2,1% and the MICEX index dropped to 1.74%. Trading volume on the RTS stock exchange was $ 2.8 billion, of which $ 1.56 billion were in the tools of the derivatives market, the MICEX Stock Exchange Section of gain by selling at 119.36 billion, turnover in the index amounted to 34.64 billion rubles.

At the general background, the shares of Transneft (4.6%), in which an increasing share in the indexes MSCI (to the question about the real reasons for changes in stock quotations - a simple change in the direction of cash flow usually outweighs all other factors combined ), well looked telecommunications sector and a number of papers in the electricity sector, in the second echelon of special sales and panic not seen.

Europe

indices of the Old World have fallen by an average of 0,6%, against a background of a number of negative corporate news from the steel, automobile and financial sectors. Scale of psychological mood of players in stock markets moved into the region, but not too fast and far we ran forward? .

America

indices of the New World fell 0,5-1% against negative corporate news with an eye to a massive correction in the Chinese stock market. Perhaps from a stronger downward dynamics American markets came to the rescue in time saved the business activity index, the values of which were quite positive and encouraging.

raw materials, currency and so on

price of gold sank to a mark of $ 950 without any reason. The index value of the dollar has kept above 78 points, but obviously increase pressure on the world's reserve currency, in a situation where the Fed has no signal to terminate quantitative easing policy.

Futures Brent crude traded around $ 70 mark, futures on WTI crude oil are slightly above $ 70.25 (the September contracts at 9-30 Moscow time).

Statistics and Reporting

Day of Knowledge promises to be quite rich in terms of information: in the 10-00 (Moscow time) leave the data on retail sales in Germany, 11-55 (Moscow time) published a report on unemployment in Germany, go indexes of business activity in the manufacturing sector Eurozone (12-00 Moscow time), UK (12-30 Moscow time) and USA (18-00 Moscow time), at 13-00 (ICN) published a report on unemployment in the euro area and in the 18-00 (Moscow time) leave important data on the market U.S. residential real estate.

As of today, increasing the size of the export duty on crude oil and petroleum products in Russia, Rosneft publishes semiannual reporting standard US GAAP, Evraz also publishes half-year accounts, but according to IFRS. OAO Pharmstandard publishes a report for the first quarter of 2009 according to IFRS - in the context of the unfolding of the company to modernize Russia's pharmaceutical industry, reporting one of the leaders in this market segment could be interesting.

Forecast

From Russia's stock market can expect a neutral opening, possibly with a small gap up. Likely to happen in the morning of speculative attacks by the bulls, which is due to oil prices, which are on yesterday's closing levels and the positive dynamics in Asia and U.S. index futures.

The mood of the overwhelming majority of Russia's stock market is: our market is cheap, money, people have accumulated quite a lot of the rally will continue, as long as oil does not disappointand held above $ 70 (though other choices are possible). Approximately the same expectations prevail and foreign sites, only the accents are arranged a bit differently. In principle, other things being equal such a position is logical and understandable - liquidity will continue to penetrate the market, jerkily moving quotes up. Change the status quo may be a default of any of the Eastern European economies, or statements for the third quarter, which have to wait another month.

All Stock public rages, discussing the large-scale correction in the Chinese stock market. However, boil until the limited active discussion of the reasons of what happened and their consequences for the global economy. Stumbling - China called the engine of future growth, but there are now fears that the locomotive did not have enough steam to pull all trailer cars. For similar arguments applied a clear separation of financial markets on the position of the real sector of the economy, one might even say that from the economic realities. In accordance with the second paragraph of the argument goes further: China strongly ran forward through the influx of Chinese investment as investors, and now comes a sobering of success. But on the other hand, looks overbought China only on a scale of one year, the same can be said about the five-year interval since the beginning of this year and the scale of two years, Shanghai Composite is trading at the level of other emerging markets, or even slightly below (if you take the MSCI index EM as the average value). In any case, should await the reaction of the Chinese Government on the loss of sovereign-quarters of the market capitalization, and only then draw conclusions about the real situation. At the moment it is obvious that the crisis is far from complete and the green shoots could well be on shoots of weeds.

Quotes of the ruble against the dollar and against the currency basket of the MICEX are 31,78 and 38,06 rubles
Confident build positions in contracts, Gazprom continues
On the NYMEX the October London Brent crude adjusted up and added 0,62%
The dynamics of today's trading will depend on whether Brent consolidates above the 70 dollars per barrel
Papers of Russia's oil and gas sector now have a good technical potential for rebound
MICEX today will storm the level of 1100, where he will get a chance to gain a foothold, if the price of black gold level otvoyuet $ 70
Trading day Monday at the international currency market was quite volatile
Yesterday, the euro /dollar at the U.S. session, rose 100 points to level 1.4365
Forex Market 01/09/2009