non-ferrous metals market review for 18.01.10

Dynamics
On Monday 18 January the price of nonferrous metals on the London stock exchange finished the trading session with an increase in the background of falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also because of the positive trend of the stock markets and adjacent areas.

At the London Metal Exchange LME aluminum price closed at 2,292 dollars per tonne.

Copper at the close of the exchange was worth 7506 dollars per ton.

Nickel bidding up the price of 18630 dollars per tonne.

London Metal Exchange index, tracking the dynamics of six metals (index of metals, consists of fixing LME base metals aluminum, copper, nickel, lead, tin, zinc) amounted to 3470.1

Causes
On Monday 18 January the price of nonferrous metals on the London stock exchange finished the trading session with a slight increase under the influence of the following factors: 1 - the fall of the dollar in the FOREX market after economic makrostatistiki and news, 2 - to strengthen the stock of sites where Europe”s main stock index closed in green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King Day 3 - positive dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the strengthening of prices for precious metals and oil. Output in the U.S. affect the volume of trades, making it difficult to determine how sustainable are these positive developments. However, on the LME was observed atypical rare reduction in stocks, which supported the uptrend of the London session in the morning.

From the news it is worth noting that the total number of transactions on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on the basis of 2009 decreased by 1% - to 111.93 million lots, equivalent to 2.57 billion tons of metal. Thus the total nominal value of futures and options, ie Exchange turnover amounted to 7.41 trillion. dollars. The annual volume of trading was the second largest in the history of the exchange. The previous four years in a row Stock Exchange fixed the record trading volumes. In 2008, the total number of transactions totaled 113.2 million totaling 10.24 trillion. dollars. Leaders in the number of trading again began to aluminum (49.7 million contracts), copper (26.5 million contracts) and zinc (16.6 million). However, the most active growth demonstrated not very popular Mediterranean futures for steel billets: in 2009 it was held on 30 thousand operations, which is 133% higher than the result in 2008. It is noted that in the second quarter of 2010 is scheduled to put into circulation the first global LME steel futures, which will combine the existing Mediterranean and Far East contracts, register a new warehouse and delivery points.

What to expect?
Many analysts say that the policy of financial incentives and a very low interest rates encouraged the purchase of non-ferrous metals. Changes in both factors is not yet in sight, so you can confidently speak about a continuing rise in prices for nonferrous metals.

Why worry?
negative factor in the market of nonferrous metals, according to analysts, appear significant fluctuations in the currency market and weak demand, which carry a greater chance of increasing desire to profit-taking by market participants and the development of a deep downward correction.

review the oil market for 18.01.10

Dynamics
Quotes of the oil market on Monday 18 January to results of the auctions closed with a slight increase in price against falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also because of the positive trend of the stock markets and adjacent areas.

At the New York Stock Exchange NYMEH the February futures price of U.S. light crude rose by 0.25, or 0.1%, and its price was 78.25 dollars per barrel.

The exchange ICE in London cost of Brent crude futures rose 0.16, or 0.1%, to 77.27 dollars per barrel.

Causes
On Monday, Jan. 18 quotes on the market of “black gold” closed with a decrease in price under the following factors: 1 - a slight drop in the dollar in the FOREX market after economic makrostatistiki and news, 2 - to strengthen the stock of sites where Europe”s main stock index closed in green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - U.S. financial markets were closed on Monday in connection with the celebration of Martin Luther King Day 3 - positive dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely the strengthening of prices for precious metals.

From news worth noting that Russia”s export duty on oil from February 1, could rise to 270.7 dollars per ton. Average price monitoring 15 December 2009 to 14 January of this year amounted to 75.91506 per barrel. Recall, from 1 January 2010 the export duty on oil is 267 dollars per tonne. The duty on light oil products from February 1, could rise to 194.7 dollars per tonne from the current 192.2 dollars per ton, on dark - up to 104.9 dollars per tonne from 103.5 dollars per ton, effective from 1 January. Earlier, the Finance Ministry reported that the export duty on oil in Russia from February 1, could grow to 271-274 dollars.

What to expect?
Many analysts point to the fact that oil prices are still within the trading range of 75-85 dollars per barrel. This indicates that oil prices may have the potential for further growth. The close relationship between oil prices and U.S. dollar is expected to continue to set the tone for trading on the oil market.

Why worry?
The main negative factors in the oil market are U.S. dollar and the technical picture, namely, the psychological and technical level of 85 dollars per barrel, which does not allow to pass higher oil prices, thereby encouraging market participants to lock in profits on the open long positions. Vitaliy Shevchenko, an analyst FC UMIS.

Overview of precious metals market for 18.01.10

Dynamics
On Monday, Jan. 18 quotes for gold and silver have completed trades with a slight increase in price against falling U.S. dollar in the currency market FOREX, and also because of the positive trend of the stock markets and adjacent areas.

As a result of trading on the COMEX, division of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) quotes gold futures rose by 3.35 to 1133.85 dollars per troy ounce, quotes, silver futures rose 21 cents to 18.64 dollars per ounce.

Causes
On Monday 18 January futures on precious metals have completed trades with a slight increase in price by the following factors: 1 - a slight drop in the dollar in the FOREX market against the backdrop of increasing risk appetite after the release of economic news and makrostatistiki 2 - strengthening of the stock sites, where major stock indexes in Europe were closed in the green zone (FTSE100 - 5494.39 (39.02, or 0.72), CAC40 - 3977.46 (23.08, or 0.58), Xetra DAX - 5918.55 (42.58, or 0.72)) - Financial U.S. markets were closed Monday in observance of Martin Luther King Day 3 - the positive dynamics of the neighboring markets, namely, enhancing the price of oil, 4 - technical factors, namely, that the market is weak technical trade. At the time, while the market of silver and gold is consolidation in the market of platinum and palladium is observed the rally. Metals, because of their low liquidity has long been undervalued. Currentlythere is a restoration of their value relative to gold and silver.

From news can note that the production of gold in South Africa in November, declined again. Compared with the same period last year it fell by 4,9%. Once South Africa was the world”s largest producer of gold, but now occupies the third position after China and Australia, after the gold production fell last year by 5%. Analysts believe that the fall in gold production will slow the pace of economic recovery the country after last year”s recession. Gold is the main source of foreign exchange in South Africa.

What to expect?
Traditional purchase of precious metals in the early years of the funds, the overall improvement in investor sentiment, as well as decrease the U.S. dollar will provide sustained support to the quotations of gold and silver. However, the situation could change dramatically if the dollar will resume its strengthening, as the inverse correlation between the dollar and the prices of precious metals continues.

Why worry?
volatile changes in the currency market may be reflected in the sharp fluctuations of prices for precious metals.

IEA: OPEC does not need to increase the level of oil production in 2010
Kommersant: Guarantee quality without

The state support shafts reduces their investprivlekatelnost …

Forex Asia
Russia”s players record profits, with the direction of further movement of the market will be determined after reporting Citigroup
At 13.00 Moscow time trade on the MICEX Stock Exchange amounted to 83.1915 billion rubles
The worst of the market, probably under the influence of technical factors, the securities traded today, a number of metallurgical and mining companies
As one of the most favorable sectors should now be noted Metallurgical Sector
Speculative recommendation on shares of Polyus Gold, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank and VTB
Shareholders fund Finam - Information Technologies “will receive the investment income