The index of the MICEX on Tuesday afternoon has exceeded 1000 points, updating the maximum from the beginning of the month due to growth of most blue chips on a background of growing European indices.
The increase is due to the recovery of selected quotes
The main risk to the Russian market are still the world indices - for example, the U.S. indicator SP yesterday closed at 950 points of serious resistance, with investors buying U.S. bonds have demonstrated the desire to perekladke more stable tools.
Thus, the American market is ready to reduce, and may contribute to this output of statistical data on construction and unemployment, as well as statements by the heads of the Fed B. Bernanke.
In the Russian market, especially in the context of lower oil prices, a major cause for the return of the annual maximum - 1206 on MICEX - as yet.
Indeed, oil market quotes at the moment can cause a serious turn with the revaluation of the fair value of the shares of Russian companies.
The attractiveness of commodities to investors starts to decrease. The rise occurred against the backdrop of the value of the expectations of global economic recovery by year's end, while the fundamental reasons for the price of hydrocarbons stopped showing positive momentum from the level of $ 55-60. In particular, it is now difficult to predict a further increase in demand for oil - gasoline stockpiles in the United States continue to rise a fifth consecutive week, while stocks of distillates have reached a maximum of 24 years. United States, a major importer of oil, not showing significant signs of economic recovery, the EU is in the II quarter showed steady deflationary sentiments, that is slowing production and the consequent decrease in the consumption of raw materials. China reported that the largest purchases of oil for filling the tanks had been completed and further imports will be based on the needs of consumption.
In addition, a return of demand for securities in the global stock markets, some speculative investors may withdraw from the commodity market, which will also help reduce prices.
Thus, we can assume that in the III-IV quarter of Russia's economy should be guided by the price of oil in the range of $ 54 for brand Urals. It is noteworthy that during this period are not excluded, and high volatility in commodity markets, during which the quotes can go far below $ 50 (technical indicators show the local oil prices return to $ 35).
average mark below the expected level of production costs for the major Russian oil companies (on average, this level is at around $ 60, with the exception of NK Surgutneftegaz - $ 40), which will cause additional losses of companies.
Thus, the basic players will now be unlikely to build up positions in shares of major Russian companies sector - the majority of purchases will be local speculative. Short-term goals of Rosneft shares is the level of 183, according to LUKOIL - 1560, according to Gazprom - 164. We recommend that you save long-term position only for shares of Surgutneftegaz, and in general, to nespekulyativnuyu of the portfolio, we will be given to only 30% of the funds.
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