On Thursday, the market showed moderate growth - despite the positive decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve rates, rather soft speech for Obama. Of pessimism have bad data on U.S. unemployment in the evening, which came out a little worse than forecasts, though, and showed declines. As a result, Russia”s markets showed growth, but this increase was not significant, having fitted into the framework of 1-2%. Better the market traded, perhaps, only shares of metallurgical sector.

In addition, individual papers again stood out the banking sector. Thus, VTB shares rose 3,19%. Several weaker, but still in positive zone have closed shares of Sberbank of Russia. The reason for this emphasis investors in securities VTB will likely have a statement on reducing the state”s share in the capital of the Savings Bank (proposed by Herman Gref) and VTB (proposed by the Government as the most preferred option). For our part, we see this growth as a purely speculative, although able to have significant implications for the quotations in the medium term. The fact is that in reality, the idea may not be as attractive to investors, as it seems. Recall that for VTB”s IPO and SPO Savings Bank was chosen very opportune moment, when the quotes were, in fact, at peak values. Placement, thus proved to be extremely unfortunate for the investors, and extremely successful for the banks and the state - and now, investors run the risk of stepping on the same rake a second time. (Indirectly, this suggests, incidentally, that Gref and Kudrin consider current levels of quotations as close to maximum).

The second point here is that Russia - a country specific, and the status of the state, although it imposes on Sberbank and VTB are enormous and often unprofitable social obligations, but is in the eyes of investors and clients virtually iron guarantee of survival and return bank deposits . If Sberbank will lose this status, for which he is forgiven much, it will be extremely difficult to compete with other non-state banks.

As for the future dynamics of the market, investors clearly expect this evening, when there are data by the U.S. GDP for the IV quarter of 2009 - they may have a determining influence on the decision to retain or reduce long positions in securities.

By specific papers important to us to the situation in the shares of Gazprom, which at 175 rubles. per share are the main uptrend - its penetration is clearly desirable, but possible. By Securities Savings Bank is an important support level of 85 rubles. per share, below which will decrease the signal to active sales. For shares of Rosneft level of the core uptrend - 230 rubles, still far away, but it too is taken into account. According LUKOIL primary support at 1600 rubles. VTB Bank has an important level of 0.0700 rubles. And finally, shares of Norilsk Nickel as a support to have the area of 4400-4500 rubles. Confident the passage of these lines or bounce them up to talk about the future direction of movement at a sufficiently long period of time.

Today

The world”s leading markets closed on Thursday the fall: German DAX -1,82%, Britain”s FTSE -1,37%, DJIA -1,13%. Asian markets fell this morning, while Japanese Nikkei225 shows -2,08%. Futures on the S P500 demonstrate change to -0.24.

Pair EUR /USD is in the € /$ 1,3940, and USD /JPY - in $ /#165; 90.17. Gold is worth $ 1.081,46 per troy ounce, silver - $ 16.15 per troy ounce, copper - $ 6,846, and nickel - $ 18,040 per metric ton.

Yields for UST-2 0,86; for UST-10 3,63.

Oil prices over the last 24 hours were down $ 0.46 to $ 71.91 per barrel varieties Brent.

At 10.00 GMT in the EU are data on euro area unemployment rate in December (Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate, forecast 10.1%), as well as preliminary index of consumer prices in January, the EU (Euro-Zone CPI Estimate, forecast 1 20%).

At 13.30 in the U.S. come out the important data on the change in GDP for the IV quarter (GDP, forecast 4.6%).

At 14.45 GMT in the United States goes business activity index for January Chicago PMI (Chicago Purchasing Manager, projection 57), as well as an indicator of confidence from the University of Michigan in January (U. of Michigan Confidence, projection 73).

So, today, we expect lower stock market quotes in early trading.

MICEX (Daily):

Restoring the world economy has accelerated
Dollar exchange rate is saved without changes - a review of cash markets
Mafia nazhilas on crisis
The dollar rose on the European budget
Face to face

Banks with foreign capital, capturing market share in almost 50%, up to 2009 suffered a loss of $ 1.3 billion dollars ..

Perhaps, over time the relationship between the dollar and oil will begin to weaken
It is possible that today many of Russia”s paper on the results of the auctions will be able to close in positive territory
From the most active market participants in Russia retains the behavior of oil prices and increased volatility of exchange rates
In the near future is expected to continue strengthening dollar and lower oil and the continuation of Russia”s market correction