At the beginning of August, the problems with payments and the card had 30 Ukrainian banks. In sixteen of them are temporary administration. Two finuchrezhdeny has withdrawn banking license. Extensions deposit moratoriums said only that the National Bank and the Government has not decided what they will do with problem banks

Despite the semi-rescue, the situation in problem banks remains critical. Last week the National Bank was forced to extend for another six months the moratorium on satisfaction of creditors' claims in the five banks - Ukrprombank, Zakhidinkombank, Nadra Bank, National Credit Bank, and Kiev. Adoption of Law on August 5, features the activities of the financial health of banks has allowed the NBU to avoid radical steps against finuchrezhdeny.

But long right? Already, many bankers say that the Government of inefficient delay in solving problems of insolvent banks, and believe that a decision on these banks will be taken over a short period of time. To date, the NBU has authorized temporary administration in 16 financial institutions in the country. In September, the expiration of the term deposit moratoriums in four banks: Transbank - September 1, BIG Energy and Rodovid Bank - September 15, Bank of Regional Development - 23 September.

Most likely, the National Bank of Ukraine will continue its practice of extending the moratorium due to the fact that the banking institutions to cope with payment of deposits. But no one doubts that almost all small finuchrezhdeniya, who in January will not be able to restore its solvency, will be on the list to eliminate.

Elimination

National Bank has in fact made it clear that the economic crisis of the Ukrainian banking system will undergo major changes. The ranks of the credit organizations strongly poredeyut. And now it is not just an expert forecast, and the conclusion, which directly follows from the measures proposed by the principal financial regulator. Suffer the unenviable fate of primarily small and medium-sized banks, which will be either absorbed by their larger competitors, or cease to exist. Two finuchrezhdeniya - Odessa-Bank and the Bank Black - have lishis their licenses.

However, the procedure may affect the elimination of the system and banks. Despite the opportunity to the interim administrator Ukrprombank for another six months to extend the deposit freeze, the Cabinet has already openly suggest that do not want to nationalize the bank and see no point to continue to foot. Last week, the Acting Minister of Finance Igor Umansky has once again stated that the assets held by the bank, not enough to pay his investors, and should think about how quickly they return the money. As an alternative, Mr. Umansky proposed transfer of the obligations of the finuchrezhdeniya in one of the state-owned banks. Allow the elimination of Ukrprombank and at the NBU. It should be noted that this scenario is the most expensive version of events. For example, the elimination of one of the two systems of banks - Nadra Bank or Ukrprombank - will fall on the fund to guarantee deposits beyond the cargo, because so far he does not possess such means. In the same Ukrprombank the average size of the deposit of an individual is about 40 thousand UAH., So that the actual amount of payments to investors will be as close as possible to 7 bln. And as of July 1, the Fund guarantee deposits accumulated total 4.53 bln.

translations of the obligations of state bank

This option is now considered not only the most acceptable, but also received a status of working. Already, officials spend two schemes of payment of deposits to depositors of problem banks. In doing so, each of them requires additional issue of the National Bank. The first, the NBU to start liquidation procedures translates investors-natural persons in the service of state-owned banks. Most of the time officials called Oschadny Bank and recapitalize Rodovid Bank. Payment of the deposits are to be employed by an increase in capital gosfinuchrezhdeniya goszayma domestic bonds, which were subsequently bought out the NBU.

The second scheme involves the launch of the bank liquidation procedures. In such a scenario, the roster of contributors will be sent to the deposit guarantee fund, and he, in turn, will begin paying compensation to 150 ths. As provided by existing legislation. But to ensure the payment of depositors of banks systemic Fund will have to apply for a loan to the National Bank (which makes a decree NBU № 308). But in both cases, investors will have to wait for their money from three to six months.

 

recapitalization

Unlike smaller finuchrezhdeny, Nadra Bank is almost the sole challenger to the recapitalization, with the participation of Cabinet. Although the process is a lot of criticism from the market. However, this is the only tool employed today by the State. As published last week, the National Bank of Ukraine action plan, which will be taken in the second half of this year, the National Bank of Ukraine said that it intends to recommend to the Cabinet of Ministers to undertake recapitalization of the banks first and second groups of up to 9,7 bln. And also to attract additional capital to small credit the third and fourth groups in the amount of 1,2 billion UAH.

 

Mergers

National Bank will try to expedite the process of mergers in the banking sector, bearing in mind the impending second wave of banking crises associated with the non-lending businesses and the public. Today it is rumored that the central bank is ready to enter into a tacit agreement with the largest finuchrezhdeniyami countries for which the National Bank of Ukraine will take the compensation of the losses on transactions with problem banks. In short, save all the financial authorities do not intend to. The fact that the decision to help only selected shows and the actual state of public refusal to buy the so-called toxic debt. According to one official NBU, in addition to all the other negatives ransom toxic securities give rise to corruption, since quite unclear on what criteria to assess the value of problem assets in the balance sheets of banks. Not surprisingly, that take on not only financial, and legal risks but officials are not ready.

 

creation of the bad assets

Yet the idea of creating a bank's bad assets currently being actively debated in the market. By the end of August, the NBU even promises to give the Government the proposal to establish a special bank for discharge balances of credit institutions of the problem assets. The lender of last resort also intends to continue the development of legislation to regulate inter-bank transfer of assets. However, this option has many opponents. According to Investgazeta source in the apparatus of government, the decision to give up buying toxic assets at the time was taken, including taking into account international experience. For example, Sweden was able to solve the problem of the lowest losses of banking crisis in Ukraine, but her experience is not applicable for several reasons. There has not been clearly defined or bubble in the stock market nor the credit field. It was only in the residential real estate market. That is, in fact, the problem was limited to toxic mortgage securities. Therefore, spending from the budget of an amount equal to 4% of GDP, to create a bad bank, Sweden managed to get out of the crisis without losses.

in the Ukrainian banking system, the value of toxic assets, apparently, could exceed the size of the Swedish. In addition, the use of public funds to cover the holes in balance sheets of problem banks would lead to the inability to perform budgetary commitments. These United States are now on the path of creating a bad bank, as have the ability to print in demand in the world reserve currency in any quantity without causing the collapse of the dollar and the entire financial system. In the arsenal of the Ukrainian authorities do not have such a tool. But there is another: cut the banking system for a living. Of course, the painful, but the recovery in the economy may be more than short.

Vyacheslav Mironenko

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