last fall - when it became clear that the United States, the flagship of the global financial system, the economy is breathing its last, - the world was seriously alarmed. And really predictions for the future - especially in this fall - and does remind horror. However, in the court as early as 1 October - and we and the world is still alive. What predictions came true of the crisis, no, but that still has a chance to materialize in the future, says Komsomolskaya Pravda in Ukraine.

1. The dollar would collapse, it will be replaced by a new worldwide currency.

spree green promised in 2009. Euro, however, some experts also promised not to the best of times. About the ruble and can not speak - only the lazy and the government of Russia did not predict his rapid devaluation.

most analysts recognize a happy future for the Chinese yuan. At least he predicted the role of reserve currency in Asia, which refuses to focus on the dollar.

Last year projections … almost nothing has changed.

experts - and many - still waiting for the death of the dollar. Pessimistic (for green) forecasts have tens per month. The latter just last week published a bank HSBC (one of the largest banking groups in the world).

However, analysts have become much calmer. I suggest that two or three years - and perhaps all five - green still torment. Maybe he will live altogether, but will be only one of the leading world currencies. For example, along with the yuan.

For Ukrainians important was that the national currency still not fallen to a mark of 15-20 UAH /USD., as predicted by some experts. And the phrase a thousand dollars now - not the same thing a year ago can get a diametrically opposite sense. For now, experts in the spring-summer of next year, waiting for the depreciation of the dollar.

2. Banking system in its current form will end. Banks nationalized.

Indeed, after bankopada in the U.S. last September was a moment when it seemed that this was the day of reckoning for the entire world banking system. Major financial institutions have the U.S. and Europe literally lined up for help from the state. Government assistance is not denied. In some European countries actually reached the stage of nationalization, but partial: equity participation of the state in exchange for financial assistance. Cash infusion helped - many countries are now talking about the rehabilitation of its banking sector.

In Ukraine public assistance were not the biggest banks. For example, two formerly included in the top ten financial institution is still virtually paralyzed. According to experts, if they are, and will save, the closer to the presidential election, thanks to investors resulted in additional votes for one candidate. In this regard, of course, the Ukrainian banking system is much more dependent on politicians than in the U.S. or Europe the same.

3. Ukraine threatens to default, and the economy will collapse.

's default scared us the first 4-5 months of the crisis. By April it became clear that the country will be able to repay all existing debt. Still, a multibillion-dollar loan from the IMF helped us cope with difficulties.

Regarding the economy, the peak of the recession we experienced in February. There is a slow build-up of production. The IMF expects that the stabilization of the Ukrainian economy will begin next year. Fund predicts GDP growth of 2,7%. And in 2011 it is expected that the pace of Ukraine's economic growth accelerated to 5,8%, which is above average for the countries of Central Europe and the CIS.

4. EU to disintegrate. Countries will pursue a policy of isolation. Intensify conflicts over energy shortages that will worsen natural disasters …

This is not predicting any astrologer or a plot of the next movie on the theme of global Armageddon. Such scenarios in the past year flashed in the reports highly respected international organizations. In particular, leaving the euro Italian experts predicted the Danish Saxo Bank - its annual shocking predictions known fact that many of them come true (for example, the projection for 2008 was discussed on the world crisis).

What can we say? Yet come true. And the euro area with the beginning of 2009 only increased.

5. Real estate will cost a penny.

In most countries, real estate has fallen in price. But most of the news that somewhere in the villa became cheaper by half, were not very liquid (that is, one in which there is demand) housing. Although we must admit: in Ukraine apartments have become worth much less than a year ago. But, unfortunately, affordable housing for the majority of Ukrainians has remained elusive.

in September 2008 for one square meter in the capital's new building in 2644 asked for the dollar, and the Resale - 3627 dollars. Now price: 1194 and 1526 cu respectively. If you convert these prices in the hryvnia, it appears that for the year house prices fell by only 15-20%.

6. Ukrainians will save literally at all.

Yes, the volume of retail turnover in Ukraine has decreased, but not dramatically - by 20,5%. Even the rest Ukrainians abroad have not stopped. Now, though, it can afford fewer and fewer people, but, for example, in Turkey this year, visited our half. This is 30% less than a year earlier.

7. Massive unrest, the revolution in oil-producing countries, the growth of terrorism.

world has faced a crisis year as a fairly quiet - in terms of political turmoil happened and worse.

Top-5 predictions for the future of crisis

Bank HSDC: economic power of the G10 countries will remain in the past, the dollar will lose its status as a world reserve currency, the current U.S. role in the world take over China, Brazil or South Africa.

astrologer Pavel Globa: crisis will end by 2020, a unified EU disintegrate into smaller alliances, Russia and Ukraine will enter into an alliance with Eastern Europe.

Saxo bank: Asian countries have moved away from the U.S. to China and tie their currencies to the yuan.

World Bank: the most crisis-affected countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia

IMF: the stabilization of the world economy will begin in 2010.

way

Why do most forecasts do not come true?

Sami analysts say the two main reasons.

1. It is widely known and replicated, as a rule, are those forecasts that society is willing to listen and absorb. People are so arranged that with much more enthusiastic about horror stories - they hurt the more emotional.

2. When many people begin to actively take steps to avoid the horrors predicted in the forecast, the situation is, of course, varies. For example, initially the correct forecast can not be realized simply due to the fact that many governments have taken any anti-crisis measures.

Denezhki

level of incidence rates of the CIS and Eastern Europe *:

1. Ukrainian hryvnia 65,0%

2. Belarusian ruble 31,4%

3. Kazakh tenge 26,3%

4. Armenian Dram 26,1%

5. Polish zloty 22,5%

6. Russian Ruble 22,4%

7. Romanian leu 19.8%

8. Moldovan Leu 15,8%

9. Hungarian forint 12,4%

10. Indian rupee 8,5%

11. Norwegian Krone 8,3%

12. The British pound 8.1%

13. Slovak koruna 6,5%

14. Latvian lats 0,6%

15. Czech koruna 0.1%

16. Lithuanian litas 0,1%

the euro appreciates against the U.S. dollar by 1%.

Swiss franc has risen in price against dollar on 6,4%.

* According to the company Forex Club

Andrew Gatsenko

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