Vista: some speculators apparently not averse to fix in the end of the week

The situation on foreign markets in the last 2 days markedly deteriorated. Destabilization of the exchange rate (1.96% euro-tion collapse in Greece) and 3% fall in the US-stock market have caused a chain reaction of re-evaluation of risks. VIX volatility index yesterday showed the maximum growth from the end of October. Cheaper raw materials and oil. Do not remain aloof and protective prices of precious metals - gold has fallen in price on 1,5%, silver - 2,7%. But the rising prices of U.S. bonds, where investors try to escape the financial weather.

For the bulls is the first wake-up call. Although today they can expect some easing of pressure against the backdrop of unfolding sales dollar and euro. In addition, some speculators apparently not averse to fix in the end of the week. A fundamental test of the strength of bulls, most likely, will be next Monday, when a new 2-week sales cycle.

Yesterday”s decline on the MICEX was accompanied by increased turnover. This indicator is the net amount of the weekly positions on the MICEX index is still positive - hence, the sale of short-term speculators are not over yet. Reconsideration of the MICEX Index closing the week below the carrying cost (IAD-5 = 1465 etc) makes it relevant to roll back the index towards the next support at the level of monthly carrying cost IAD-20 (1413 on). Here is the lower boundary of the channel growth of 10 December.

Despite the cheapening oil, while Russia”s ruble is stable and even slightly stronger against the currency to a basket. The yield on the domestic debt market is also decreasing (Fig. 1) against the background of continued deceleration of inflation. The market expects the Central Bank to further reduce the refinancing rate. Today Rosstat published data on the rates of industrial production in December. Is expected to grow by 5% compared to 2% in November. In general, the economic situation looks positive, and perhaps it will keep the hotheads from sudden movements.

Review of the FOREX market for 21.01.10
The U.S. administration is ready to “fight with Wall Street”
Dollar exchange rate is saved without changes - a review of cash markets
National Bank liquidated Hypobank, and then changed his mind
“Slippery” start

Winter brings losses to insurers, but before the end of the year is expected to substantial recovery of the market …

Dollar exchange rate to the ruble on the Moscow Interbank Stock Exchange now stands at 29.76 rubles
Russia swept the market against the backdrop of the world wave of sales today might fall back to 1420 points on the MICEX
Falling oil quotations below current levels offers the prospect of further reduction
The negative dynamics of Russian quotes today will continue throughout the session